Street Signals

Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-year pandemic and its aftermath making these already considerable burdens even more challenging. Can the world's once-reliable engine for growth avoid a similar fate of disinflation and relative decline? The hurdles are high but the comparison is not entirely apples-to-apples. China's fate is not sealed, possessing key advantages in rebuilding their post-COVID economy. Ramu Thiagarajan, a senior investment advisor for State Street, and Yuting Shao, one of our emerging market strategists in Asia, join the podcast to discuss a recent paper outlining the steps China will likely need to consider in sidestepping the looming threats of debt and deflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was a great first quarter for risky assets and carry trades, perhaps surprisingly, given recent economic data and events have actually offered a few surprises. Yet rotation within equity markets and the stability of relative rate expectations kept volatility at bay. After a rockier first few days, will Q2 offer a change in sentiment? This week, we welcome Bill Walsh, head of our FX trading desk in the Americas, back to the podcast to offer his thoughts on a wide array of topics. Inflation, the Federal Reserve, volatility, the direction of the dollar and where both funding and risky currencies sit - they all get special attention on this whirlwind tour of the risk complex.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A turn higher in inflation carries with it the potential to disrupt the current easing plans of central banks and create volatility, in similar fashion to the market upsets that recurred throughout 2022. The evidence in the official data is mixed, and this week, we have a genuine expert to help us answer the question of whether inflation, having cooled somewhat, is in danger of rising once more. Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats, one of our research partners, is back with us. We discuss whether and where inflation risks are rising and what implications that carries for monetary policymakers who otherwise plan to begin lowering rates around the middle of this year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Exploring the current landscape of low FX volatility and carry trading strategies, with a focus on market dynamics, risks, and potential trade ideas. Insights on G10 currencies, emerging markets, stagflation risks, and a strategic trade proposal involving the Dollar Swiss.

Last October, we did an episode asking whether it was a good time to buy bonds answering, 'Yes, it probably was', with the release date marking the 16 year high in US Treasury yields. Talk about good timing. But after a 10% gain into year end, the last two months have been more challenging for global fixed income. Resilient data in the US and elsewhere have deferred expectations for easing in the large developed economies. Equities have loved the good news but the best you can say for bonds is that returns year to date are flat. Marvin Loh is back on the podcast this week to take another look, focusing on how much longer monetary policy needs to be restrictive, whether any of the cracks seen so far in commercial real estate and at regional banks should worry us, what to expect from the Federal Reserve meeting next week and whether this is, indeed, still a good time to buy bonds.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With decades of experience as an FX trader, portfolio manager and writer, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, is an ideal guest for a period when currency markets are quiet, range-bound and looking for inspiration. We walk through his career path, particularly how he has adapted to changing market regimes and worked to counteract behavioral biases over the years. And, with central bank policy still the dominant factor in the market mindset, driving activity over short and long term horizons, we conclude with Brent's current thoughts on interest rate market pricing, volatility and what it means for the near-term direction of currencies. Check Brent out on Twitter (@donnelly_brent) and on his Substack.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The 2024 US election cycle has begun in earnest, with next week's Super Tuesday primaries likely to solidify Joe Biden and Donald Trump as their respective parties' nominees for President. Elliot Hentov from State Street Global Advisors rejoins the podcast, cutting through the hype cycle to offer a more informed read of polling, the likely balance of power and possibility in the outcomes across executive and legislative elections and the exogenous events that could influence the process along the way. The traditional cyclical implications of election season, as well as the stark differences between presidential and party platforms, carry meaningful implications for equities, fixed income and the dollar.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Preston Mui, a senior economist at Employ America, joins us this week, to dive into the improving trend in US productivity growth. Drawing on a recent paper highlighting parallels to the 1990s productivity boom, Mui emphasizes that whether we witness another boom in productivity hinges not on fate, but on policy decisions. He underscores the importance of tight labor markets, robust investment, and a stable supply of essentials to keep inflation at bay in nurturing productivity.  Preston's paper, The Dream of the 90s is Alive in 2024, is used as source material for the discussion and is well worth your time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a fascinating conversation, experienced economist and trader Mark Dow discusses the evolution of behavioral approaches in investing, misconceptions surrounding monetary policy and wealth creation, the factors that distort yield curve signals, and a bullish view on home builders and agency mortgage rates.

The technology sector has no shortage of positives backing it and the applications of artificial intelligence across tech and other sectors present us with mind-boggling possibilities. But questions of valuation and concentration risk arise given how positive the consensus has become. It takes two strategists to help us sort it out, with Anthi Tsouvali from State Street Global Markets and Rebecca Chesworth from State Street Global Advisors joining us this week, to discuss the strengths and potential vulnerabilities within the tech sector, and the seemingly limitless opportunities afforded to all of us by artificial intelligence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.