Street Signals

At the end of 2023, attractive yields and valuations on emerging market assets and currencies made for many consensus long calls from sell-side strategists. Many of those views played out for much of the first half of 2024. And even some of the political and electoral obstacles to performance proved to be short lived, such is the institutional credibility that has strengthened in many developing economies over the last ten years. Dwyfor Evans, our head of emerging markets strategy, joins the podcast this week to offer thoughts on how EM has built a degree of resilience and whether the stability seen so far this year can continue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as a consequence. But election year politics and stubbornly volatile consumer inflation expectations complicate matters. This week - on US CPI day of all days - Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, returns to the podcast to talk through the inflation picture, leveraging insights from our research partner, PriceStats, offering an outlook for how to think about inflation in the short, medium and long terms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Toby Nangle, an independent analyst, discusses how higher yields are changing asset allocation strategies, specifically in UK pensions. He explores the impact of political events and market movements on UK assets and the pound, offering insights on optimizing investments and navigating the evolving investment landscape.

This evening's Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump kick starts a campaign season that, so far, has been a formality and failed to spark much attention in either the electorate or the market. Polling margins between the candidates are razor thin and many of the usual rules of thumb to forecast elections don't seem to apply anymore. To help us unpack the narrative and offer insights drawn from years of political analysis, we were fortunate enough to host our newest research partner, Dan Drezner, professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, at our recent Research Retreats in Boston and London. This week's podcast draws on material from his prepared remarks and the Q&A at the London event.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After 14 years of Conservative government, the upcoming UK General Election on 4 July will bring seismic change. From both the left and the right, the Conservatives now face a threat. The Labour Party look likely to win a large majority and form a government, but are constrained in their ambitions by fiscal realities. What does it mean for the UK economy and markets? Helen Thomas, Founder and CEO of Blonde Money, joins us with a fascinating and comprehensive overview of how we got here, why the Conservatives find themselves in crisis, what opportunities are on the table for a potential new Labour government and how gilts and the pound might fare in the coming months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With elections in 63 countries, representing 40% of global population and GDP, the democratic process will see few years like 2024. The US election looms largest, with implications for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, all of which feed back into the involved economies and global financial markets. This week, from the sidelines of our Research Retreat in Boston, we catch up with Iris Malone, PhD and Director in AI and Data Science at GeoQuant, who takes us around the world, modelling risk in geopolitics and focusing on the probability of seismic changes for markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we kick off a series of podcasts recorded at or on the sidelines of our 2024 Research Retreats, taking place across North America, Europe and Asia over the next four weeks. And we do so live, without a net, for the very first time, and in front of an audience to boot. Three members of the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Global Markets present their top picks for how to play markets over the rest of the year. Dan Gerard, Marvin Loh and Ning Sun make their respective cases to the audience in a rapid-fire, Shark Tank-style presentation, with ideas as wide-ranging as how to think about US Financials, the US yield curve and the state of Emerging Market FX carry trades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies mature and their markets open more to outside investment, their respective growth and inflation stories increasingly matter for global investors. Flow dynamics are of particular interest, given the equity markets in both economies have been underinvested in for years. And, with the Chinese renminbi a low-yielding currency and the Indian rupee a high-yielder, many of most popular and profitable carry trading strategies in FX markets over the last 18 months hinge on the path these two currencies take. This week, we take a deep dive into the world's second and fifth-largest economies, with a special focus on the forthcoming Indian election results and their impact, with the help of four of our Macro Strategy and Trading colleagues in the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are back to all-time highs and volatility is normalizing, with the rate outlook for the remainder of the year coming into clearer focus. Is it too much of a good thing? Who better to ask than bond market guru, the creator of the MOVE index of implied interest rate volatility and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, Harley Bassman. This week's conversation explores the Fed's easing cycle, the shift in policymakers' focus from inflation to the labor market and the overlooked importance of demographics. Harley also talks through the creation of the MOVE index, the implications that his view on rate volatility has for mortgage backed securities and why investors should avoid credit and duration risks. Check out Harley on Twitter, @ConvexityMaven, and at convexitymaven.com.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dynamics in today's currency markets are informed by historic events and trends that shaped the structure and of the global economy. Building on a lifetime of experience in formulating currency policy at the US Department of the Treasury and as US representative to the IMF, Mark Sobel, US Chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), joins the podcast to discuss many of the most far-reaching and relevant themes driving FX markets today. He details his thinking on the potential success of ongoing intervention in the Japanese yen, the centrality of the US dollar in trade and global finance and the history and current themes of RMB valuation and currency diplomacy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.