Pekingology

Sabine Mokry, a Postdoctoral researcher from the University of Hamburg, dives deep into the role of expertise in shaping Chinese foreign policy. She reveals how think tanks influence policy, often translating abstract government slogans into actionable proposals. Sabine discusses the evolution of China’s international engagement, including its recent self-identification as a 'near-Arctic state.' She also highlights the significance of institutional connections to the Party in determining a think tank's impact, making for a fascinating exploration of political dynamics.

Paul Mariani, a Jesuit priest and professor at Santa Clara University, dives into the complexities of Catholicism in post-Mao China. He explores the Communist Party's cautious approach to religion and the significance of Document 19 in shaping policy. Mariani discusses the delicate balance between state-approved Patriotic Associations and underground churches, highlighting Bishop Louis Jin's pivotal role in navigating these tensions. He also evaluates the Vatican's controversial 2018 agreement with Beijing and its impacts on Chinese Catholics.

Minxin Pei, a Professor at Claremont McKenna College and expert on Chinese elite politics, discusses his book, "The Broken China Dream." He shares his intellectual shift from optimism to skepticism regarding China’s reforms. Pei delves into the dual-track economy sparked by agricultural decollectivization and reflects on the critical impacts of the Tiananmen Square protests on China’s political landscape. He contrasts Xi Jinping's regime with previous leaders, likening him to Stalin due to his purges and authoritarian tendencies while exploring the future of China's elite choices.

Philip O’Keefe, a demographer and professor at UNSW, dives into China's demographic challenges. He discusses the implications of a rapidly aging population and the impact of low fertility rates on the economy and innovation. O’Keefe highlights regional variations in birth rates and how changing family structures affect elder support. He examines the potential of technology in elder care and the limitations of current pro-natalist policies. O’Keefe also connects these demographic shifts to China's global economic role and future growth prospects.

Cobus van Staden, Managing Editor of the China Global South Project, shares his expertise on China–Africa relations. He discusses China's strategy to enhance its global influence, focusing on recent FOCAC outcomes and commitments to industrialization and green energy. Cobus highlights the increasing agency of African nations in shaping the agenda, while also examining the mixed results of the Belt and Road Initiative. He delves into the implications of China's slowing economy and its strategic partnership with South Africa, showcasing the complexities of these international dynamics.

Ning Leng, an expert in Chinese political economy and author of "Politicizing Business," dives into the intricate dance between business and politics in China. She explains how the state embeds itself in firms, impacting everything from employment to waste management. Ning discusses the vagueness of political demands, the recurring punishments firms face, and the peculiar case of a stunning wastewater plant that became a source of protests. She warns that politicization can undermine investment confidence and sustainability, raising critical questions about the future of China's economy.

Sarah Beran, a former U.S. foreign service official, dives deep into the complexities of U.S.-China diplomacy. She shares insights on how meaningful talks with adversaries are structured, the significance of predictability in negotiations, and how China prepares for presidential summits. Sarah contrasts U.S. action-focused approaches with China's emphasis on optics and signaling. She discusses key players in Chinese decision-making, Xi's evolving diplomatic style, and the impact of summits as action-forcing events, providing a nuanced picture of international relations.

Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research at Trivium China, and Andrew Polk, Co-Founder of Trivium China, dive into China's economic challenges. They discuss the looming middle-income trap and the critical role of innovation and productivity in overcoming it. The guests highlight 2035 as a pivotal point for China's economy due to demographic changes and deglobalization. They also explore why housing is crucial for growth and who influences Beijing's economic decision-making, shedding light on Xi Jinping's unique approach to welfare and fiscal policy.

Jon Czin, a foreign policy expert and former CIA analyst, delves into the intricate dynamics of Xi Jinping's leadership. He highlights Xi's trusted inner circle, revealing the distinction between loyal allies like Wang Huning and disposable figures. The discussion explores Xi's selective delegation of authority and the implications for the upcoming fourth term. Czin also examines potential successors, the impact of internal factionalism, and offers strategic advice for U.S.-China summit interactions in light of Xi's historical context.

Joining the discussion are Rick Rosso, a senior advisor focusing on India and emerging Asia economics, and Will Todman, chief of staff at the CSIS Foreign Policy Department. They dive into the evolving relationship between China and India, sparked by a recent meeting between Xi and Modi. The chat explores the complexities of their tensions, including border disputes and military dynamics. Further, they analyze how U.S. tariffs could be reshaping alliances and emphasize the importance of a robust U.S.-India partnership to effectively navigate China's influence.