Pekingology

On this episode from the Trade Guys, Bill Reinsch, Scott Miller, and Andrew Schwartz unpack the Geneva agreement between the U.S. and China to deescalate their trade war. They also look at the US-UK framework agreement and what lessons it offers for other countries looking to negotiate with the Trump administration. Originally aired on May 15, 2025.

Jon Czin, the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings and former CIA analyst, delves into the intricate decision-making within the People's Republic of China. He discusses Xi Jinping’s rise to power, the influence of personal experiences on leadership, and the complex relationship between China’s domestic politics and its foreign policy strategy, particularly regarding the U.S. Czin highlights the ongoing struggle against corruption and emphasizes the need for a more nuanced understanding of Chinese political dynamics.

Chen Dongxiao, President of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, shares his insights on China's rising role in global politics. He discusses the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations, particularly under the Biden administration, emphasizing the competitive but necessary dialogue needed for cooperation. Dongxiao also highlights the pivotal role of think tanks in shaping these relations, advocating for more creative approaches to global challenges through track-2 dialogues. His candid reflections offer a unique perspective on the complexities of international diplomacy.

In this special episode from The Truth of the Matter from CSIS, host Andrew Schwartz speaks with Scott Kennedy, CSIS senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, to discuss the latest in the U.S.-China trade war, including China’s technological capabilities, new export controls, and the possibility of future decoupling.Original interview published on April 17, 2025.

Martin K. Dimitrov, a political science professor at Tulane University and expert on authoritarianism, shares fascinating insights from his work on dictatorship and information. He reflects on his Bulgarian childhood during communism and how personal experiences shape views on repressive regimes. The discussion dives into how authoritarian leaders grapple with controlling information, the balance between public sentiment and propaganda, and strategies from Eastern European communist regimes to maintain compliance. Dimitrov's analysis reveals the intricate dynamics of authoritarian resilience, particularly in China.

Xuezhi Guo, the Lincoln Financial Professor of Political Science at Guilford College and author of 'The Politics of the Core Leader in China,' dives into the evolution of China's political leadership. He discusses the crucial shift under Xi Jinping from collective leadership to concentrated power, linking it to historical practices of core leadership. Guo highlights how Confucianism and Legalism have shaped governance while elucidating the balance needed between strongmen and collective rule. The conversation also explores the implications for the future of China's political landscape.

Victor Shih, an associate professor at UC San Diego, delves into the intricate elite politics of China, drawing from his insights in elite political strategies. He intriguingly discusses the delicate balance dictators maintain to avoid empowering capable deputies too much, and the shifts in power dynamics post-Mao. Shih also examines how Mao’s 'coalitions of the weak' contrast with Deng's approach and highlights the struggles of 1990s princelings, particularly how Xi Jinping's rise reflects these evolving strategies amid complex internal and geopolitical challenges.

Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a Fellow for international political economy at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of 'Sovereign Funds,' discusses the intricate ways the Communist Party of China finances its global ambitions. She unpacks the evolution of sovereign wealth funds, using examples from Kuwait to Norway, and illustrates China’s unique approach shaped by political and economic strategies. Liu also dives into Central Huijin’s role in banking reforms and examines how Chinese sovereign funds navigate international partnerships, especially in the face of geopolitical tensions.

Dr. Lynette H. Ong, a Political Science Professor at the University of Toronto, discusses her book on state repression in contemporary China. She reflects on her nearly decade-long field research amid heavy political restrictions. Key topics include the role of community members in enforcing compliance, the troubling consequences of urban development, and the decline of trust during China's zero COVID policy. Ong's insights reveal the intricate dynamics of everyday governance and the darker side of China's rapid economic growth.

In a captivating discussion, Erica Frantz, an Assistant Professor at Michigan State University and expert on authoritarian politics, explores the potential consequences if Xi Jinping dies in office. They delve into the complexities of leadership succession in authoritarian systems, revealing how a lack of proper planning can lead to instability. Historical examples illustrate that while many regimes endure post-leader death, significant political change is rare. Frantz also examines the current dynamics in China, emphasizing the impact of centralized power on governance.