Pekingology State of Play: Are U.S. tariffs bringing India and China together?
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Sep 5, 2025 Joining the discussion are Rick Rosso, a senior advisor focusing on India and emerging Asia economics, and Will Todman, chief of staff at the CSIS Foreign Policy Department. They dive into the evolving relationship between China and India, sparked by a recent meeting between Xi and Modi. The chat explores the complexities of their tensions, including border disputes and military dynamics. Further, they analyze how U.S. tariffs could be reshaping alliances and emphasize the importance of a robust U.S.-India partnership to effectively navigate China's influence.
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Rapprochement Is Preexisting And Gradual
- India-China rapprochement predates the Trump tariffs and has been driven by incremental steps like border disengagement and restored flights.
- The Tianjin Modi-Xi meeting accelerated an existing trend but faces limits due to low mutual trust.
Economic Needs Drive Engagement
- India sees trade with China as necessary to attract supply-chain manufacturing for its Make in India goals.
- New manufacturing ambitions push India to import capital goods and intermediate inputs from China despite strategic concerns.
Modi's Japan Visit Outpaced SCO Gains
- Rick noted Modi's simultaneous high-level visits, pointing to Japan ties being deeper than recent China outreach.
- He contrasted the substantive Japan announcements with the more modest China outcomes.