Top Traders Unplugged

Alan Dunne, an expert in macroeconomic issues, joins forces with renowned economist Kenneth Rogoff to navigate the complexities of inflation and volatility. They unpack Rogoff's insights on anticipated inflation spikes and examine troubling trends in multi-strategy hedge funds, reflecting shifting investor sentiments. Dunne shares concerns about potential flash crashes and explores high-volatility alternatives versus traditional low-volatility strategies. Their discussion highlights the need for a long-term perspective in adapting investment strategies amid an evolving macro landscape.

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of "Shocks, Crises and False Alarms," discusses the pitfalls of alarmist economic predictions. He critiques the obsession with doom-saying forecasts, advocating for a nuanced approach to assessing macroeconomic risk. The conversation covers the consequences of misinterpreting economic signals during COVID-19, explores inflation dynamics, and highlights the intricacies of tight labor markets and productivity, offering insights for navigating today's economic challenges.

Rob Carver, a systematic trading expert, emphasizes the need for traders to take real breaks from the markets. He shares his experiences with letting his trading system run while on holiday and explores the theory of macro momentum. Carver discusses targeting portfolio volatility without relying on stop-losses, the implications of a potential U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the intricacies of ETFs. He also analyses whether buying CTA replication products truly mirrors the performance of underlying indices, shedding light on critical investment strategies.

Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and author, offers deep insights into liquidity's pivotal role in global markets. He unveils how rising liquidity could favor risky assets, countering the belief that the Fed is tightening. With $70 trillion in annual refinancing needs, he argues inflation is probable, significantly impacting gold and equities. The discussion also navigates intricate FX market dynamics, recent yen fluctuations, and hints at potential strategies to weaken the US dollar, suggesting substantial implications for liquidity and asset values.

Andrew Beer, an expert on replication strategies, reveals intriguing insights into the trend-following community's challenges amidst August's market volatility. He discusses the complexities of achieving optimal correlation levels in replication and addresses the struggles faced by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). The conversation delves into the due diligence process and explains why managed futures are worth allocating to. Lastly, Beer unveils a groundbreaking new CTA index, shedding light on the evolving landscape of managed futures strategies.

Peter Berezin, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, shares insights on the looming US recession and potential declines in the S&P 500. He discusses leading indicators in housing, labor, and manufacturing that suggest economic weakening. Peter critiques current equity valuations, especially concerning AI optimism, and details the implications of rising unemployment. He also forecasts a gradual Fed easing cycle, expected 10-year yields at 3%, and highlights the future of commodities, contrasting the prospects of metals against struggling oil.

Richard Brennan, an expert in volatility and investor behavior, shares insights on the recent market turbulence, comparing it to airplane turbulence as a metaphor for volatility. He argues against the reliance on backtesting for predicting future performance, advocating for more realistic expectations of risk and returns. The conversation highlights how human behavior influences price movements and discusses the role of trend followers in this dynamic. Brennan also addresses the benefits of including highly correlated assets in trend-following portfolios.

Mark Mills, an author and expert on the economic impact of new technologies, shares his insights on how advancements in various fields are primed to trigger significant economic growth. He explains the rising power demands of AI and how smart energy policies can support innovation. Mills also highlights the challenges of renewable resource extraction and the need for improved policies in mining. Additionally, he discusses the evolving concept of 'manufacturing as a service' and its potential to reshape industries, all while emphasizing economic resilience in today’s complex landscape.

In this engaging discussion, Katy Kaminski, a market behavior expert and portfolio management guru, delves into the dynamics of economic disruptions and their impact on investor behavior. She examines the troubling relationship between bonds and inflation, stressing the need for a rethink of traditional investment strategies. Katy distinguishes between crises and corrections, highlights the evolving landscape of CTAs, and emphasizes the importance of process adherence in turbulent times. Tune in for insights on building resilient portfolios during market volatility!

John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, shares his expertise on hedge fund selection and portfolio construction. He discusses the critical role of manager selection and how top-down strategies integrate into this process. The conversation highlights the importance of diversification and active management, particularly in volatile markets. John emphasizes the value of emerging managers, the challenges of launching new funds, and the need for transparency in hedge fund management. His insights shed light on optimizing allocations in a shifting financial landscape.