Top Traders Unplugged

Nick Baltas, a trend following expert, joins the discussion to dissect recent market rotations and their effects on trading strategies. He explains how trend followers adapted early to July's shifts and analyzes the consequences of abandoning short fixed income trades. The conversation reveals how investor perceptions of trend following have evolved and stresses that there’s no one-size-fits-all strategy. Baltas also delves into the changing landscape of risk management in trend following, drawing parallels to past market events.

Aswath Damodaran, a distinguished Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and authority on corporate finance, shares his insights on the evolving landscape of investing. He discusses the decline of traditional value investing and critiques the hype surrounding AI, especially in major tech firms like Nvidia. Aswath delves into equity risk premiums, the shortcomings of common valuation methods, and the challenges of valuing non-cash-flow assets like gold and crypto. The session concludes with invaluable advice for investors to adapt and thrive in an AI-driven future.

In this engaging discussion, Cem Karsan, a volatility expert, dives into the current state of the volatility market and its implications for investors. He reveals how recent U.S. election events could reshape economic outcomes. Karsan compares volatility trading to an Olympic sport, showcasing the skill required to navigate market shifts. He emphasizes understanding flow in financial systems and preparing portfolios for volatility. The conversation also touches on factors like the dollar-yen carry trade and potential inflationary challenges, offering valuable insights for savvy investors.

Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning Reuters journalist and author, dives into the critical nature of lithium and copper in the green energy transition. He reveals the paradox of mining's benefits versus its environmental costs, emphasizing innovative extraction techniques and the challenges of sustainable practices. The conversation also addresses complex relationships between corporations and Indigenous peoples, shedding light on urgent issues of ethical mining and cultural preservation. Scheyder's insights offer a nuanced perspective on the future of energy and resource management.

Mark Rzepczynski, a seasoned expert in trend following and quantitative easing, delves into the dynamic world of investment strategies. He discusses how the issuance of treasury bills influences quantitative easing and the evolving views on inflation. Rzepczynski emphasizes the value of building robust trading systems over models, and explores the interplay between stocks and bonds in portfolios. The conversation highlights the impact of AI on trend following, while examining cognitive biases like the hot hand fallacy that shape investor decisions.

Financial expert Alfonso Peccatiello and Cem Karsan discuss the challenging macroeconomic environment, impacts of debts, wealth inequality, new tariffs, weaker Dollar, Gold and Bitcoin prospects. Insights on interest rates, central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential effects of a Trump presidency on the global economy. Exploring macro investing, underestimation of political policies, and staying informed in a global macro-driven world.

Hedge fund expert Alan Dunne discusses the U.S. election's impact on the economy and markets, advice for starting a trend following fund, and the increasing performance fees in the CTA space. They delve into building a robust hedge fund portfolio, dual mandates of managed futures strategies, and the use of 'delay' by trend managers to smooth returns.

Former central banker Adam Posen discusses the economic outlook, monetary policy, and global central banking. He explains why rate cuts are unlikely next year, the challenges of inflation targeting, and the impact of fiscal policy. Posen also explores potential fiscal crisis risks, sustained higher interest rates, and the implications for the global economy.

Guest Graham Robertson from Man AHL discusses trend following trends, performance in diverse markets, importance of trend following in portfolios, access to Chinese markets, ESG considerations, commodities diversification, AI in trading, and capped equity strategy.

Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management discusses systematic trend following strategies for single stocks, emphasizing the importance of cutting losses and participating in upside moves. They cover challenges in portfolio construction, active downside risk management, leveraging, and optimizing portfolio composition for consistent success. The episode highlights the benefits of trend following in small and mid-cap stocks and the significance of discipline and process in trading.