SI338: Politics, Markets & Power Plays: An Unfiltered Look ft. Cem Karsan

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Mar 8, 2025

Explore the interplay between shifting political landscapes and global markets. Discussions include the impact of potential recessions on asset classes and Europe's military rearmament. Delve into Turkey's economic struggles and its geopolitical significance. The conversation also highlights the challenges of inflation and stagflation in the U.S., and the possible repercussions of corporate-favoring policies. The analysis offers valuable insights for navigating market chaos and investment risks amidst today's volatility.

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INSIGHT

US Economic Outlook

The Biden administration is aiming to lower demand and control the 10-year yield.
They plan to achieve this through supply-side economics and demand reduction policies.

INSIGHT

Dollar Strength and Yield Manipulation

Lowering yields while maintaining a strong dollar seems counterintuitive, yet this is the administration's objective.
Market adjustments often counteract manipulation, making this strategy challenging.

INSIGHT

Mar-a-Lago Accord and Debt Jubilee

The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" involving allies buying 100-year bonds at zero interest is pure speculation.
It reflects a potential trend towards a debt jubilee, similar to Japan's approach.

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Together with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex landscape.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:40 - We are at a populism crossroads

07:09 - Industry performance update

09:02 - The current state and outlook for the global economy

21:03 - The absurdity of lowering yields to maintain a strong dollar

28:47 - The Mar-a-Lago accord - realistic or pure speculation?

35:42 - Are we seeing a new new world order?

42:20 - How the TSMC deal with the US will impact the conflict between Taiwan and China

50:28 - A perfect storm for the Turkish economy

57:20 - The importance of Turkey's position and military power

58:49 - Oil is in a weird spot at the moment

01:03:00 - Could extreme market drops cause policy changes?

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