Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

In this insightful discussion, Matt Colyar, Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, dives into the recent surge in inflation data. He highlights the unexpected rise in the January Consumer Price Index and its implications. The conversation explores the surprising increase in used vehicle prices and factors like consumer behavior and tariffs. Food and healthcare inflation trends, including rising egg prices, are examined. The group also unpacks the complexities of different inflation metrics and their effects on economic forecasts, ensuring a lively exchange of ideas.

Dante joins the podcast to break down the January employment report and provide his odds for an Eagles Super Bowl victory. The job market is starting 2025 in a great place, and the team discusses the implications of significant revisions to labor market data. Finally, the conversation turns to tariff policy as everyone weighs in on which tariffs, if any, are likely to stick around and the resulting impact on the economic outlook.Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Discover the latest findings on the equilibrium long-term interest rate and how it relates to the Fed's recent pause in adjusting rates. The discussion navigates through recent economic data, revealing insights on GDP growth, consumer spending, and inflation trends. Delve into the implications of the Fed's balance sheet normalization and the dynamics of Quantitative Tightening. Uncertainties around tariffs and immigration policies also shape the exploration of future monetary policy directions, making for an enlightening conversation.

Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, joins to discuss the current landscape of the American consumer. He dives into Visa’s Spending Momentum Index, illustrating how inflation impacts spending across different income levels. The discussion also addresses trends in delinquency rates and the wealth effect on affluent consumers. Best shares insights on the challenges faced by lower-income households and the implications of Trump's economic policies, blending serious analysis with celebratory humor as the hosts mark their 200th milestone.

Cosimo Pacciani, Head of Research for Poste Italiane, and Gaurav Ganguly, Chief EMEA economist at Moody's Analytics, dive into the economic implications of recent U.S. political events on Europe. They discuss inflation trends and the ripple effects on European politics, spotlighting how rising prices are impacting voter behavior. The conversation also touches on the Eurozone's trade surplus with the U.S. and the cultural shifts affecting market dynamics. The episode concludes with insights on revitalizing European competitiveness amid geopolitical challenges.

Glenn Hubbard, Nonresident Senior Fellow at AEI and former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, joins the conversation to discuss various economic dynamics. He analyzes the potential impacts of Trump’s policy proposals on the economy and delves into corporate tax cuts and job growth trends. The discussion also covers discrepancies in job count data and the complexities of the current labor market, including wage growth and the effects of immigration and inflation on different income groups.

The discussion kicks off with the hosts reminiscing about New Year's celebrations and Y2K. They dive into predictions for 2025, focusing on economic growth and risks like climate change and cyber threats. Concerns about the stock market's inflated valuations and consumer sentiment follow. Natural gas prices are analyzed against geopolitical tensions, and the conversation shifts to the potential impact of immigration policy on economic growth. The episode closes with a humorous touch as they tease future surprises amid serious economic insights.

Justin Begley, a federal fiscal policy expert at Moody's Analytics, joins the discussion on the economic implications of a smaller government under the incoming Trump administration. The conversation examines the proposed agency DOGE and its regulatory agenda, questioning how deregulation could affect economic growth. They also tackle the complexities of immigration policies, the relationship between mergers and acquisitions and wealth distribution, and the soaring number of federal regulations, debating their costs versus benefits in the current economic landscape.

Professor Alice Kassens, an expert in health and labor economics from Roanoke College, shares her innovative approach to teaching using podcasts. She discusses how her students engage with economic data and debate its implications. The conversation dives into the impacts of a potential government shutdown on the economy and financial markets. Kassens also highlights the disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual economic statistics, shedding light on the anxieties faced by the younger generation in the job market.

Alan Blinder, a Princeton professor and former Fed Vice Chair, shares fascinating insights on the recent Fed rate cuts amidst economic uncertainty. He discusses the decline in job finding rates, especially for immigrant workers, and critiques corporate tax cuts. Blinder reflects on the historical compromise of Fed independence during Nixon's presidency, revealing its lasting implications. The conversation also touches on the balance of monetary policy against evolving political landscapes and the resilience of the economy despite challenges ahead.