Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Cochrane on China, Chris on Crude
Jun 20, 2025
This week, Steve Cochrane, recently retired Chief APAC Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Chris Lafakis, Director of Climate and Energy Economics, to explore the intricate dance between geopolitics and the economy. Steve shares insights on managing workplace dynamics after 32 years in the game, while Chris delves into U.S.-China economic tensions. The duo discusses rising oil prices triggered by Middle Eastern conflicts and their potential impacts on consumer spending. A blend of personal reflections and serious analysis makes for an engaging conversation!
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Managing Up Early Career Lesson
- Steve Cochrane shared how he learned "managing up" early in his career at Moody's Analytics.
- He described approaching his boss with an overwhelming to-do list and receiving clear prioritization advice that eased his burden.
Forecasting COVID in Asia
- Steve Cochrane discussed his pride in Moody's forecasts during COVID-19 for Asia due to preparedness from past epidemics.
- He also shared frustration with forecasts for China due to hard lockdown mismanagement and policy uncertainty.
Forecast Errors from Policymaker Actions
- Forecast errors often result from misjudging policymakers' decisions, which may not be driven purely by economic factors.
- This source of error is common and complicates economic forecasting significantly.