Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Chit-Chatting About Jobs
Jul 3, 2025
Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, joins the hosts for a lively discussion about the labor market. They unravel the contradictions between positive job reports and the underlying economic weaknesses, alongside concerns about stagnant wage growth. The group also debates the potential threats of higher inflation lurking beneath the surface. Engaging in a stats game, Marisa showcases her knowledge, stumping the experts with surprising figures. The conversation fuses expert insights with playful banter.
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June Jobs Report Nuances
- The June jobs report showed modest headline gains overshadowed by concentrated growth in few sectors and public education jobs which could be seasonal.
- Underlying private sector job growth outside healthcare and leisure actually declined, signaling labor demand softening.
Labor Market Softening Explained
- Labor demand is weak but unemployment remains stable as labor supply is also contracting.
- This balance suggests the job market is softening rather than outright weak or strong.
Job Declines with Stable Unemployment
- A decline in payroll employment accompanied by stable unemployment rate can still indicate a soft economy.
- Immigration policy constraints on labor supply partly explain this dynamic.