Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Zelman on the Housing Zeitgeist
Jun 27, 2025
Ivy Zelman, Executive Vice President of Zelman & Associates, shares her 30 years of expertise on the housing market, joined by Adam Kamins, a regional economist at Moody's Analytics. They dissect the current bearish outlook due to disappointing demand and a mortgage rate lock's impact. Ivy discusses the regional differences in housing dynamics and why builders are pulling back. The conversation also covers the challenges faced by first-time buyers and the role of policy changes on the housing landscape.
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Housing Demand Weakness Factors
- Demand in the housing market is weaker especially for move-up and luxury buyers due to confidence concerns and rising costs.
- First-time buyers face affordability challenges reminiscent of the early 1980s causing persistent demand weakness.
Impact of Interest Rate Lock
- Interest rate lock is causing sellers to hesitate, as many have low-rate mortgages making refinancing costly.
- Some homeowners remain reluctant to sell despite price gains due to the gap between old and new mortgage rates.
Rising Listings Amid Stress
- Listings are rising in some Sunbelt markets as homeowners face stress like soaring taxes and insurance.
- These pressures push some to sell, but not enough to solve the overall supply crunch yet.