Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Scott Hoyt, an economist and retail specialist, dives into the gloomy state of U.S. consumer sentiment this holiday season. He discusses disappointing retail sales trends and factors contributing to consumer softness, like inflation and housing. The conversation takes a turn towards debt burdens, highlighting inequality among households. With a modest holiday sales forecast, the panel examines how a stronger prior year complicates growth comparisons. They also tackle a listener question on wealth inequality, emphasizing its impacts on housing and education.

Alan Blinder, a renowned economics professor and former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, shares his insights on various pressing topics. He explores the potential of AI to drive unexpected GDP growth while warning of a bubble in equity markets reminiscent of the Wile E. Coyote metaphor, highlighting the unpredictability of market crashes. Blinder also discusses the implications of AI on job displacement, education reforms, and the risks to Federal Reserve independence amid political pressures. His thoughts on immigration policy further underline critical labor shortages.

Matt Collier, a savvy economist from Moody's Analytics, joins the discussion on the aftermath of the government shutdown and its surprisingly mild impact on the economy. The conversation shifts to the Trump administration's actions aimed at improving affordability, including the rollback of tariffs on everyday items like pasta and bananas. The hosts also unveil a new segment addressing listener questions, touching on everything from job market implications to potential housing finance reforms. Tune in for some insightful economic analysis!

Discussing the lack of official labor market data, the hosts explore alternative labor indicators and the implications of a potential federal government shutdown. They analyze trends in unemployment claims and job cuts, suggesting that AI may primarily impact overseas jobs. Delving into private payroll measures, they estimate future hiring will be weak. As travel disruptions loom, they ponder the broader economic ripple effects and the challenges ahead in data recovery, highlighting how AI can enhance rather than replace economic forecasting.

Chris Lafakis, Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, explores the economic impact of hurricanes. He discusses Hurricane Melissa's effects on Jamaica, highlighting damage and economic losses due to low insurance coverage. Lafakis also dives into a study predicting catastrophic consequences for Miami's economy from a severe hurricane, detailing GDP declines and property value shocks. The conversation touches on the importance of federal aid and the role of catastrophe bonds in managing insurance gaps, making for a compelling discussion on disaster preparedness.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and former Federal Reserve economist, joins Matt Colyar, Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, for an insightful discussion on the current economic landscape. They analyze the recent Consumer Price Index data and its impact on inflation, labor markets, and stock valuations. Claudia highlights risks such as the effects of immigration policy on productivity and financial strains on lower-income households. The duo also considers the implications of AI on the economy and potential systemic risks in private credit.

Colleague Matt Colyar joins Cris and Mark on the podcast to discuss the prospects for inflation and the threat posed by subprime consumer credit problems to the banking system and broader economy. They discuss all of this through the prism of concerns raised by clients in their travels this past week: Mark was out West, Matt in Texas, and Cris in Bermuda. Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistan Director, Economist, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Justin Begley and Brendan LaCerda join Inside Economics to discuss the federal government shutdown and its macroeconomic consequences. First, the crew discusses how the shutdown is preventing the release of federal economic statistics, and Justin runs through a bunch of private data sources that can be used to gauge the health of the labor market in the absence of the BLS reports. The conversation then turns to the shutdown itself. Brendan and Justin opine on when and how the stalemate might end and the macro consequences of an extended shutdown. Finally, the team breaks tradition with the stats game.   Guest: Justin Begley, Economist, Moody's analytics and Brendan LaCerda, director Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn   Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In a thought-provoking discussion, Lisa Simon, Chief Economist at Revelio Labs, shares insights on the state of the labor market amid a government shutdown. She highlights how private data, like Revelio's workforce analytics, can fill gaps left by absent government statistics. Topics include notable trends in job postings and salary growth, the impact of H‑1B visas, and current layoff notifications. Lisa provides a sneak peek into Revelio's recent findings, showcasing industry fluctuations and emphasizing the delicate balance of hiring in uncertain times.

Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, lends her insights into the resilience of the U.S. economy and consumer spending trends. She forecasts a modest growth ahead, dismissing recession fears while analyzing labor market stability. Michelle discusses the composition of holiday spending, emphasizing the impact of e-commerce and inflation. Regional spending patterns reveal strong trends in the Southeast, while upside potential lies in AI investments driving productivity. A riveting conversation on the health of the American consumer awaits!