My guest today is Bob Elliott, the CEO and CIO of Unlimited, which creates low-cost index ETFs for alternative investment strategies. Prior to co-founding Unlimited, Bob was a senior investment executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on their investment committee and led Ray Dalio’s personal research team for a decade. His breadth and depth of experience makes him a great person to assess the current macro landscape. We discuss the relationship between rates, inflation, and asset classes, Bob's approach to identifying data with the most signal, and finish with his view on quantitative strategies in private markets. Please enjoy this great discussion with Bob Elliott.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.   -----   This episode is brought to you by Canalyst. Canalyst is the leading destination for public company data and analysis. If you're a professional equity investor and haven't talked to Canalyst recently, you should give them a shout. Learn more and try Canalyst for yourself at canalyst.com.    -----   Today's episode is brought to you by Brex. Brex is the integrated financial platform trusted by the world's most innovative entrepreneurs and fastest-growing companies. With Brex, you can move money fast for instant impact with high-limit corporate cards, payments, venture debt, and spend management software all in one place. Ready to accelerate your business? Learn more at brex.com/best.   -----   Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.    Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.   Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus   Show Notes [00:02:45] - [First question] - The Economic Organization of a POW Camp and key lessons one can learn from the paper [00:07:22] - The way that supply and demand clears a price and how that plays into his thinking about investing across asset classes  [00:09:58] - Whether or not he has a generalized investing worldview or framework [00:11:46] - Deciding on what data is signal and matters most when analyzing markets  [00:15:46] - A crash course on easy money and tight money regimes and the implications of both in a macro environment  [00:20:28] - The rise and role of inflation and what should be done about it [00:24:00] - What the next couple of years will look like if we draw lessons from history [00:30:12] - Why gold could ever belong in someone's portfolio when it doesn’t produce or yield anything back to the investor  [00:35:08] - Supply and demand constraints and the state of the housing market today  [00:40:42] - What might happen in future labor markets given our current macro environment [00:46:27] - Currencies, energy, geopolitics, and what he’s most focused on globally [00:52:19] - What movements in the charts are worrying him the most  [00:56:04] - The original “All Weather” portfolio and what one would look like if he built it today [01:02:05] - How his career has taught him to find talented individuals who might deliver alpha [01:07:19] - Lessons learned from early-stage and venture investing and thoughts on that world now [01:12:41] - Why there hasn’t been an iconic early-stage technology investing firm driven by systematic strategies [01:16:10] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him 

In Episode 313 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bob Elliott, the co-founder and CEO of Unlimited, a financial services firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate the index returns of alternative investments. Demetri asked Bob onto the podcast to help sort through the noise of this latest financial news cycle as it pertains to the debt ceiling debate, regional bank stocks, the Fed’s fight against inflation, and where we find ourselves in the economic cycle. Many have been surprised by how long it’s taken for an economic recession to materialize given the speed and extent of the Federal Reserve’s rate rises. Demetri and Bob discuss what might explain this and what it means for investors if supply-side factors to the economy make combating inflation difficult for the Fed to do without undermining the economy’s ability to supply the capital needed ameliorate it. This episode is an excellent overview of where we find ourselves today and provides an especially useful framework for thinking about the important issues facing the economy and markets over the next six months to twelve months. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/15/2023

Former Investment Committee member at Bridgewater Associates, Bob Elliott, discusses the impact of peak globalization on economies and asset prices, emphasizing potential shifts towards less globalization and reshoring post-COVID. The podcast explores the implications of policy changes, demographic shifts, and the benefits of onshoring production. Elliott also shares insights on non-monetary investments and highlights the health benefits of walking.

Bob Elliott, CEO of Unlimited, discusses the macro picture, increasing odds of a recession, and the benefits of allocating 10% of a portfolio to gold. They explore the factors leading to a recession, the importance of considering a wide range of outcomes in financial planning, and the value of learning from investing experts. The speaker expresses gratitude for being on the show and encourages listeners to check out Unlimited Funds' website and follow them on Twitter for more market discussions.

In this engaging discussion, Bob Elliott, co-founder and CEO of Unlimited, delves into the Federal Reserve's strategic shift from fighting inflation to fostering labor market growth. He and Demetri Kofinas explore the potential shift from an income-driven to a credit-driven economy, fueled by increased borrowing. They also analyze China's economic situation and the implications of its stimulus for global markets. Additionally, they dissect the role of labor strikes and the importance of effective asset allocation in a changing economic landscape.

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates.Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192--Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedFollow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeardsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:39) What Is The Soft Landing?(04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low”(12:45) January Inflation Data(19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates?(24:50) Outlook for Stocks(29:02) Permissionless Plug(30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound(36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade(41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening?(45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys(51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates(01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bob Elliott, financial expert, joins The Compound and Friends to discuss the eruption in the market, what to watch for in 2024, the outlook for regional banks, the stupidest piece of research, and hedge fund strategy ETFs. They also explore the impact of interest rates, bonds, and prospects for regional banks, as well as the stability of deposits in small and large banks. Finally, they discuss Netflix's power law structure and strategic promotion, comparing it to traditional cable systems and recommending non-finance podcast Hidden Forces.

Bob Elliott, a macroeconomics expert from Unlimited Funds, delves into inflation, Fed policies, and market dynamics. Topics include evaluating market price targets, gold in portfolios, investing in hedge funds, and fiscal policies' impact. The discussion covers central banks' cautious approach, economic indicators, political decisions' macroeconomic consequences, and the role of gold as a hedge. The podcast explores portfolio diversification strategies, tax efficiency with ETFs, and the complexity of navigating hedge fund fees.

Join experts like Michael Mauboussin, a strategy guru, and Rick Ferri, a seasoned advisor, as they unpack crucial investing lessons. Discover the power of base rates in decision-making and the advantages of simplicity in strategies. Bob Elliott warns against viewing diversification too narrowly, while Andy Constan reveals why most investors lack an edge. Meb Faber emphasizes the value of long-term investing, and the group stresses treating stocks as ownership in businesses. This is a treasure trove of wisdom for anyone looking to sharpen their financial acumen!

Bob Elliott, CIO at Unlimited Funds, and Mike Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, discuss the late cycle slowdown coming in 2024. They cover topics such as the impact of passive investing, the relative value of bonds vs stocks, and the signals delinquencies are giving regarding credit. They also explore the potential results of geopolitical conflict on investments like Bitcoin, gold, and bonds, and whether the Fed will cut rates in 2024.