Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy cover image

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Bob Elliott - A Macro Tour - [Invest Like the Best, EP.302]

Nov 8, 2022
Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited, shares his insights from a rich background at Bridgewater Associates. He delves into the crucial relationship between interest rates, inflation, and asset classes. Bob emphasizes the importance of selecting high-signal data to guide investment decisions and how behavioral dynamics influence macroeconomic cycles. He discusses the shift toward tighter monetary policies, the resilience of the labor market, and the significance of quantitative investing in venture capital as a means to navigate current economic complexities.
01:21:37

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The labor market's tightness drives a self-reinforcing cycle of wage growth, increased spending, and strong overall economy.
  • The housing market is experiencing frozen dynamics with low transaction volume and limited price discovery, taking years to reach a new equilibrium.

Deep dives

Labor market dynamics and self-reinforcing cycle

The labor market is experiencing tightness and strong conditions, leading to wage growth and increased spending. This self-reinforcing cycle is driven by the tight labor market, which increases incomes and supports the overall economy. Even with negative real wage growth during inflationary periods, the spending levels of lower-income groups remain strong, making it challenging to slow down the cycle. To control this, asset prices would need significant declines, which would take time and have a delayed impact on spending and the labor market.

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