The Julia La Roche Show #236 Bob Elliott: 'Curb Your Enthusiasm' as Negative Growth Surprise Ahead
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Feb 24, 2025 Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, shares insights on the economic landscape and investment outlook. He warns of a potential growth disappointment in 2025, driven by shifting Fed policies and rising tariffs. Elliott highlights the contrast between high growth expectations in the stock market and the low confidence levels among professional investors. The conversation also covers the implications of partisan perspectives on market sentiment and the growing demand for gold as a safe haven amid economic uncertainty.
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Curb Your Enthusiasm Outlook
- Bob Elliott's "curb your enthusiasm" outlook suggests that market euphoria post-election is priced in.
- The policy mix now looks less positive, potentially leading to growth disappointment and a shift from stock to bond outperformance.
Policy Mix Concerns
- The Fed's projected easing cycle seems less likely, shifting to a neutral stance.
- The new administration's focus on immigration restriction, deficit cuts, and tariffs might negatively impact growth.
Growth Expectations vs. Reality
- Markets and economists have high growth expectations (2.5-3%) for 2025 despite the natural economic slowdown.
- Tighter fiscal and monetary policies may hinder meeting these expectations.