The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? 

Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates.

Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192

--

Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring

Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited

Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

--

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:

https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

--

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:39) What Is The Soft Landing?

(04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low”

(12:45) January Inflation Data

(19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates?

(24:50) Outlook for Stocks

(29:02) Permissionless Plug

(30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound

(36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade

(41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening?

(45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys

(51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates

(01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity?

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.