Cem Karsan and Andy Constan, experts in options trading and market analysis, discuss the importance of understanding flows in market trading, risk management in options trading, the driving force behind bullishness, market sentiment shift and impact, market moves focusing on momentum vs. mean reversion, and the uncertainty and potential decline in the market.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity.Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap___Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeardsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/____Timecodes:(00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity(04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake(11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising?(18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity(31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"?(44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo(53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks(59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade(01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)?(01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell(01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andy Constan, a veteran macro trader and publisher of the Damped Spring Report, dives into the current state of financial markets. He highlights the struggles small businesses face with rising interest rates and examines the Fed's confusing rate dynamics. Constan shares insights on MicroStrategy's complex Bitcoin investments and levered ETFs, warning of associated risks. He emphasizes the need for a hawkish Federal Reserve approach to stabilize an increasingly abnormal financial landscape, framing the discussion around evolving economic conditions.

Andy Constan, bond market expert, discusses being bearish on stocks and bonds but bullish on two-year notes. Topics include recession odds, Treasury market dynamics, stock-bond correlation, Fed's actions, and gold price implications.

In Episode 316 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan about this week’s FOMC meeting and what the Federal Reserve rate decision could signal about the direction of interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. Will it be heralded as the long anticipate Fed pivot or seen as yet another head fake on our way toward “higher for longer,” serving as a drag on equity valuations and a headwind to economic growth? Because Andy’s analysis is largely quantitative and flows based, he looks at not only what policymakers and investors are saying, but also what they’re doing, what they’re buying, and how they’re buying it. This holds important information for the direction of bond prices, equities (and other risk asset), inflation, and economic growth, all of which Constan and Kofinas discuss in the second part of their conversation. The two also run through different scenarios surrounding the Federal Reserve rate decision, the significance of Janet Yellen’s decision to refill the Treasury General Account (TGA) using largely T-Bill issuance as opposed to longer duration bonds, and why the long-anticipated recession has failed to materialize despite the most aggressive interest rate increases in 40 years. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 06/13/2023

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates.Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192--Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedFollow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeardsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:39) What Is The Soft Landing?(04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low”(12:45) January Inflation Data(19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates?(24:50) Outlook for Stocks(29:02) Permissionless Plug(30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound(36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade(41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening?(45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys(51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates(01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andy Constan, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, discusses rates, bond issuance, and asset prices in the global macro landscape. They analyze inflation predictions, rate hikes, market volatility, dislocation of bonds, and the stimulative nature of hiking interest rates. They also mention the 'Crash or Boom' series and upcoming guests.

Financial expert Andy Constan discusses the U.S economy, inflation, stocks, bonds, and market outlook. Topics include why the economy remains strong, loose financial conditions, relief fueling a stock rally, expectations for QRA, and the debate between alpha and beta in investing.

Analyzing the tech sector’s surge, implications of declining yields, Fed’s QT remarks. Forecasting March data. Discussing largest AI event in Asia, market signals, interest rate normalization impact. Exploring tech stock valuation, GDP growth, managing investments in uncertain times.

"What the Bond Sell-off Means for Investors" features Andy Constan, a bond market expert, and Mike Green, an analyst. They analyze the recent turmoil in the bond market, discussing the rise in long-term government debt and its implications for the economy. Topics include the risk-reward for investors considering bonds in their portfolio and the challenges of forecasting economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. They also explore the impact of long-term interest rates on the housing market and the divergence between stock and bond returns.