Andy Constan

Lyn Alden, an investment strategist known for her macroeconomic insights, teams up with Andy Constan, a 39-year finance veteran, to discuss Bitcoin treasury companies. They tackle the legitimacy of these firms, questioning if they border on Ponzi schemes. The duo examines how returns are generated, why there are premiums to net asset value, and whether these companies can sustain operations without new capital. Alden offers a bullish outlook on well-run treasuries, while Constan warns of their unsustainable reliance on fresh investments.

In this conversation, Andy Constan, a macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Advisors, argues that private credit will replace the Fed's role in economic growth. He discusses how massive investments in AI and onshoring will drive demands for bank lending. Andy explains the differences between money and credit, and how traditional business cycles might resurface as investments outpace consumer spending. He highlights the implications for asset classes in this new bank-driven landscape and urges listeners to rethink previous economic paradigms.

Andy Constan, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, offers a compelling analysis of macroeconomic trends impacting today's markets. He emphasizes a cautious Federal Reserve at a critical juncture, alongside fiscal policies that might induce contraction as tariffs come into play. Contradicting the prevailing 'run it hot' market narratives, Constan presents data indicating a slowdown is already underway. His insights shed light on the complex interplay of government financing strategies and economic indicators that could shape the financial landscape.

Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors, shares insights on the U.S. economy's precarious path. He introduces his 'Island Framework,' showcasing the shift from 'Higher for Longer Island' to 'Recession Island.' Andy discusses the influence of Trump and Powell's policies on market dynamics, emphasizing why bonds may outperform stocks now. He also delves into the implications of tariffs and national debt, as well as long-term inflation drivers like demographics and deglobalization's impact—offering a thorough analysis for investors navigating today's volatile landscape.

Cem Karsan and Andy Constan, experts in options trading and market analysis, discuss the importance of understanding flows in market trading, risk management in options trading, the driving force behind bullishness, market sentiment shift and impact, market moves focusing on momentum vs. mean reversion, and the uncertainty and potential decline in the market.

Andy Constan, a finance expert known for his insights on monetary policy, delves into the nuances of Quantitative Tightening 2.0. He emphasizes the Fed's shift in its SOMA portfolio and its effects on financial markets. Topics include the intricate ties between QT, the debt ceiling, and Treasury's management strategies. Andy also talks about the ramifications of long-term asset holdings, the deficit's impact on market stability, and the anti-growth nature of cryptocurrencies like DOGE. It's a deep dive into the future of our economic landscape.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity.Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap___Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeardsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/____Timecodes:(00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity(04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake(11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising?(18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity(31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"?(44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo(53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks(59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade(01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)?(01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell(01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andy Constan, a macro investor and founder of Damped Spring, shares insights drawn from his experiences at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard. He unveils his Four-Pillar Framework, discussing the interplay of growth, inflation, risk premia, and market flows. Andy elaborates on the impact of the AI-driven CapEx boom and the economic effects of tariffs, emphasizing the Fed's independence and the uncertainty in the labor market. He highlights the significance of probabilistic thinking for macro portfolios and the dynamics of corporate buybacks in shaping market direction.

Andy Constan, a veteran macro trader and publisher of the Damped Spring Report, dives into the current state of financial markets. He highlights the struggles small businesses face with rising interest rates and examines the Fed's confusing rate dynamics. Constan shares insights on MicroStrategy's complex Bitcoin investments and levered ETFs, warning of associated risks. He emphasizes the need for a hawkish Federal Reserve approach to stabilize an increasingly abnormal financial landscape, framing the discussion around evolving economic conditions.

Andy Constan, bond market expert, discusses being bearish on stocks and bonds but bullish on two-year notes. Topics include recession odds, Treasury market dynamics, stock-bond correlation, Fed's actions, and gold price implications.