Forward Guidance Future Growth Will Be Driven By Banks, Not the Fed | Andy Constan
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Jan 7, 2026 
In this conversation, Andy Constan, a macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Advisors, argues that private credit will replace the Fed's role in economic growth. He discusses how massive investments in AI and onshoring will drive demands for bank lending. Andy explains the differences between money and credit, and how traditional business cycles might resurface as investments outpace consumer spending. He highlights the implications for asset classes in this new bank-driven landscape and urges listeners to rethink previous economic paradigms.
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Promises Require New Sources Of Credit
- A wave of promises (AI, onshoring, fiscal deficits) requires vast funding beyond typical needs.
- With the Fed largely sidelined, who supplies that credit matters critically to outcomes.
Push Versus Pull In Credit Creation
- Credit expansion needs demand, not just bank capacity; banks lend when borrowers pull money.
- Paying higher yields and clear private-sector opportunity pulls banks to create loans.
Money Versus Credit Clarified
- Distinguish money creation (Fed or banks creating deposits) from credit creation (activating existing savings).
- Money creation debases prices and is instantly stimulative; credit can stimulate without new money but raises fragility.