If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alfonso on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - The big macro picture04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?18:23 - A sticky situation21:53 - A wealth of trades?26:58 - A secular reality29:17 - The banking situation35:16 - A build-up effect38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities01:13:41 - Where is the world heading?01:17:57 - Final thoughtsCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Alfonso Peccatiello, also known as "Macro Alf," is a macroeconomic analyst and investment strategist. He dives into the implications of the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cuts, questioning if these moves are timely or too late. The discussion covers potential recession risks versus a soft landing. They also explore how these changes will affect borrowing, consumer behavior, and crypto markets. Alf shares insights on navigating financial innovation amidst political pressures and advises on portfolio strategies in this shifting landscape.

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023.Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN--Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) Introduction(00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up(11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability?(20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate(29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits(38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending(46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending(49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No!(01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen?(01:06:34) When Recession?—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Preston Pysh interviews Alfonso Peccatiello, better known as Macro Alf, to talk about how the banking system works, what might come next with the spreading global impairment, and what it might mean for Bitcoin and other asset classes. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:00:00 - Intro01:25 - Global perspectives and insights.05:28 - The impact of immediate withdrawals on banks' cash reserves.11:49 - Twitter debates: QE returns or not?11:49 - Dispelling Bitcoiners' mistrust in the banking system.28:43 - Piecing together the European inflation & bond yield puzzle.34:52 - Predicting the 10YR-2YR inversion's future.34:52 - Shadow banking and insurance companies under the microscope.42:58 - Real estate and REITs in times of high debt and interest rates.42:58 - Examining inflation stickiness in today's economy.50:32 - Unexplored insights: What's being overlooked?55:33 - Debating the debt spiral scenario.55:33 - From problem talk to finding solutions.Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. Macro Alf's Website and Content. Macro Alf's Twitter. Related episode: Listen to TIP495: The Changing Composition of Money w/ Alfonso Peccatiello, or watch the video. Related episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello, or watch the video. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.  SPONSORSSupport our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Range Rover Vacasa AT&T The Bitcoin Way USPS American Express Onramp Found SimpleMining Public Shopify Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Join Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and a veteran portfolio manager, as he shares his deep macro insights. He discusses his unique journey from a small Italian village to leading a $20 billion fixed-income portfolio. Delve into his framework thinking in trading strategies, the complexities of market crowding through the lens of the Japanese carry trade, and the importance of robust risk management. Alfonso also highlights strategies to diversify portfolios by exploring alternative investments, challenging traditional concepts of market dynamics.

Macro trader and Bloomberg analyst, Alfonso Peccatiello, discusses Trump trades, options in macro trading, and AI trends. The podcast covers topics like market shifts towards small cap stocks, distinguishing momentum flush from macro rotation, navigating uncertainty, analyzing the value of options, and exploring Nvidia's position in AI narrative cycle.

Financial analyst Alfonso Peccatiello discusses the Fed Put and Bull Steepener Base Case. Topics include impact of higher interest rates, private debt, government deficits, interest rate sensitivity, US recession risk, macro carry strategies, and trading frameworks in macro investing.

Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, discusses the U.S bond market sell-off and its implications, bond market sentiment, the best risk/reward being short equities, the weakness in Europe, understanding the yield curve, supply & demand in the U.S bond market, bear steepening during an inverted yield curve, and whether bonds will continue selling off until something breaks.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso look back at 2022, before sharing their global macro outlook for 2023. Reflecting on the best trades of the year, Andreas and Alfonso remember the greatest trades put forward by our guests in 2022. Turning to 2023, just how will the events of 2022 shape the global macro picture? We dive into the equity market outlook, what the liquidity cycle is telling us and finally, Andreas and Alfonso share their actionable trade ideas. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®️, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:37) 2022: A Year In Review (04:35) The Best Trades In 2022 On The Macro Trading Floor (10:22) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (17:59) The U.S & European Business Cycle (20:22) “Curve Ad” (21:32) The U.S & European Business Cycle (28:52) Equity Market's In 2023 (35:07) The Liquidity Cycle In 2023 (39:44) Higher, Or Lower? (43:15) The Best Trade For The New Year -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Join market guru Alfonso Peccatiello, known for his risk management wisdom, and Brent Donnelly, a trading strategy expert, as they dissect the recent market turbulence. They explore the massive unwind of carry trades and its implications. Discover their strategies for effective risk management, even in chaotic times. The duo also delves into how social media can provide insights into market trends and the importance of clear decision-making amid volatility. Expect a captivating dialogue that will sharpen your trading perspective!