The Macro Trading Floor

Where To Find Cheap Macro Optionality

Jul 19, 2024

Macro trader and Bloomberg analyst, Alfonso Peccatiello, discusses Trump trades, options in macro trading, and AI trends. The podcast covers topics like market shifts towards small cap stocks, distinguishing momentum flush from macro rotation, navigating uncertainty, analyzing the value of options, and exploring Nvidia's position in AI narrative cycle.

39:15

Episode guests

Alfonso Peccatiello

AI Summary

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Consider stepping back from tech-heavy indexes to avoid risks from inflated valuations.

Analyze macroeconomic indicators like break-evens and bond market behavior to anticipate market shifts.

Deep dives

Market Rotation and Index Performance

Observing a potential market rotation, where traditional indexes may become tech-heavy, leading to skewed performance. The discussion suggests that stepping back from heavily over-weighted sectors, like tech, might be wise to avoid risks associated with inflated valuations.

Intro

3min

Distinguishing Between Momentum Flush and Macro Rotation in the Market

2min

Navigating Uncertainty in the Market: Insights on Job Market, GDP Growth, Political Speculation, and Utilizing Options

21min

Analyzing the Value of Options for Anticipating Market Moves

2min

Analyzing Nvidia's Position in the Narrative Cycle of AI and Potential Peak

5min

Exploring Equity Risk Premium and Political Contrasts

5min

Alf and Brent look into various ''Trump trades'' now that the odds of a Trump election and Republican sweep have increased: is there still juice left? And where? Specifically, they also reflect on the use of options as macro traders.

Want to see Alf's Cheap Optionality Monitor?

Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg

And take advantage of Brent's course offer!

Think Like a Market Professional:

www.spectramarkets.com/school - use code JULY24 for $500 off

Stuff mentioned during the podcast:

GS piece on AI https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf?ref=wheresyoured.at

Ed Zitron pieces on AI

https://www.wheresyoured.at/pop-culture/

https://www.wheresyoured.at/put-up-or-shut-up/

White House statement on Biden (find the spelling error)

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/17/statement-from-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-3/