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Forward Guidance
Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case
May 9, 2024
01:02:06
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Financial analyst Alfonso Peccatiello discusses the Fed Put and Bull Steepener Base Case. Topics include impact of higher interest rates, private debt, government deficits, interest rate sensitivity, US recession risk, macro carry strategies, and trading frameworks in macro investing.
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Quick takeaways
- High interest rates impact private sector spending through debt service ratios.
- Rising interest rates may not stimulate economies, negatively affecting borrowers.
Deep dives
Impact of Fed Hikes on Private Sector
Higher interest rates from central bank hikes can affect the private sector's ability to spend on consumption. A metric like the debt service ratio indicates how much disposable income goes into servicing costs for houses and corporates. The impact is visible when the refinancing cycle affects a larger part of the private sector over time.
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