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Top Traders Unplugged
GM41: Global Macro Face Off ft. Cem Karsan & Alfonso Peccatiello
May 3, 2023
01:19:40
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Quick takeaways
- During a recession, the direction of the US dollar depends on factors like credit deleveraging, Fed policy, and interest rate differentials.
- Buying volatility rather than taking a specific direction in currency trends during inflation can be a strategic move.
Deep dives
The Uncertainty of Dollar's Path during a Recession
During a recession, the outcome for the US dollar is not clear-cut. If the recession is accompanied by credit deleveraging, the dollar tends to appreciate due to the compression of the system. However, if a recession occurs without significant credit deleveraging, other factors like Fed policy and interest rate differentials play a role. The dollar's direction during a recession depends on the shape the recession takes and the specific circumstances at play.
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