Top Traders Unplugged

GM41: Global Macro Face Off ft. Cem Karsan & Alfonso Peccatiello

54 snips
May 3, 2023
Guest
Alfonso Peccatiello
Guest
Cem Karsan
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INSIGHT

Comparing 1970s and Today Inflation

  • The 1970s inflation was driven by a labor-intensive economy with strong union power and demographic growth.
  • Today's economy is more capital-intensive with slower labor growth and globalized supply chains, making the current inflation dynamics different.
INSIGHT

Distinguishing Inflation Trends and Cycles

  • Inflation trends and inflation cycles are different; structural inflation can rise while short-term inflation falls.
  • Cyclical inflation falls during recessions but long-term inflation may still be higher than previous decades.
INSIGHT

Bond Market Ignores Structural Inflation

  • The bond market shows no term premium or risk pricing for structural inflation despite recent hikes.
  • Lack of compensation for duration risk suggests investors expect long-term inflation and growth to weaken.
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