The Distribution of Potential Outcomes Long Term

I think we're more likely to see a dramatic earnings recession in the next four, five years than we are to see an actual deep recession. I would argue that in 68 to 82, we did get three recessions. The effects of monetary policy have a direct effect as does fiscal right on that cyclical story. Demand will continue to be sticky, structural inflation will continue to work higher. And even if we have cyclical downturns, like I believe we agree, we're going into much shallower than people expect.

Transcript

Play full episode

Transcript

Episode notes

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts

Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.

Get the app