If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alfonso on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - The big macro picture04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?18:23 - A sticky situation21:53 - A wealth of trades?26:58 - A secular reality29:17 - The banking situation35:16 - A build-up effect38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities01:13:41 - Where is the world heading?01:17:57 - Final thoughtsCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Cem Karsan and Andy Constan, experts in options trading and market analysis, discuss the importance of understanding flows in market trading, risk management in options trading, the driving force behind bullishness, market sentiment shift and impact, market moves focusing on momentum vs. mean reversion, and the uncertainty and potential decline in the market.

Cem Karsan, a finance and global markets expert, joins the discussion to unpack today’s investment landscape. He highlights how increased volatility can present unique opportunities for savvy investors. Karsan emphasizes the role of geopolitical factors, particularly with the new U.S. administration, that could shift market dynamics. He also explores the historical impacts of populism on markets and suggests a keen eye on sectors like gold and cryptocurrencies as we navigate upcoming market fluctuations.

Cem Karsan, an expert in market outlook and global macro, shares insights on utilizing options for profit, global conflicts impact on the economy, possibilities of US rate cuts, and the impact of the US election on the economy. He discusses where he believes Equity markets will finish the year, navigating global macroeconomics, and the complex interplay of global macroeconomics, Federal Reserve policies, US politics, asset allocation strategies, market trends in relation to inflation and interest rates, and the impact of fiscal stimulus on wealth effects.

Global macro expert Cem Karsan and Alan Dunne delve into market volatility, options trading strategies, wealth effect, elections impact, and global implications of the US election. They discuss the market microstructure, volatility dynamics, market breadth, potential market decline post-August, and trading strategies amidst increasing volatility.

Cem Karsan returns to discuss tail hedging and the possibility of a new bear market. They explore the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, the importance of thinking differently in asset allocation, and the volatility compression mechanism during the holiday season. The podcast also touches on trend following performance, the link between global conflicts and inflation, and the significance of specific dates in the market.

Cem Karsan stops by The Business Brew to discuss the lens he views markets through.  Cem's viewpoint is unique compared to many guests on this program because he looks at how options dealers are positioned and considers what flows may result from that positioning.  Many guests on this show view equity valuation as the present value of the discounted cash flows available to equity.  While Cem would likely agree with that, he argues in this episode that an equity's valuation is really an output derived from the options market (which expresses probabilistic views of discounted cash flows).   We hope this episode gives you something to think about! Cem Karsan formed Kai Volatility Advisors after two decades of experience building industry-leading derivatives businesses.  From 1999 to 2002, he worked as a volatility trader as part of RBC Dominion Securities/ Derivatives Arbitrage Group.  From 2002 to 2005, he worked under renowned Wall St. investor John Mulheren at Bear Wagner Specialists, where Cem helped expand the firm's fledgling derivatives arbitrage business into a competitive force within the industry.  In 2005, Cem took a select group from the firm's proprietary trading arm and founded Precision Capital Management, specializing in equity index volatility arbitrage.  The firm became a significant SPX market maker reaching, at its peak, a high of ~13% of daily trading volume.*  In 2010, Cem divested his stake in Precision and fouded AEGEA Capital, the precursor to Kai Volatility Advisors. *Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Follow Cem on Twitter https://twitter.com/jam_croissant Learn more about Kai: https://www.kaivolatility.com/contact   This episode is brought to you by Bastiat Partners, a boutique investment banking firm.  See https://bastiatpartners.com/.  Detailed show notes below. Album art photo taken by Mike Ando. Please see www.mikeando.com. Thank you to @mathewpassy (on Twitter) for the show production. Please leave us a rating in your favorite podcast player! Detailed Show Notes: Open – Cem’s background 7:25 – How Cem thinks about what matters to capital markets 13:10 – Valuations have no predictive value, short term 14:10 – What happened in 2017 and why did the market seem to go up every day? 21:40 – The counterintuitive conclusion of buying and selling volatility 23:10 – Why equities are derivatives of “derivatives” 27:10 – Why options are potentially better instruments for expressing a view 32:45 – Gamma squeezes explained 38:25 – Cem’s thoughts on where we are from a macro perspective 46:10 – The wealth gap and why 49:40 – Why we may be in a fundamentally inflationary environment 54:50 – The impacts of monetary policy and which generations have been hurt and helped by policy 1:00:40 – Why some medicine today may end up better in the long run 1:02:10 – The tension between utopia and the current (efficient) system 1:06:40 – Evolution and iteration will hopefully lead to better incomes 1:10:55 – The coming risks may come from exported inflation to emerging markets 1:13:10 – The winners of tomorrow used easy money to plant seeds over the past years 1:15:10 – More background on Cem

Renowned risk management experts Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan discuss the current market climate and the importance of long volatility and owning convexity in investment views. They also tackle the consequences of government debt and the challenges faced by central banks. The speakers explore the risks of unwinding non-recourse leverage and delve into the potential impact of expanding volatility in areas like FX and equity. A must-listen for investors looking for insights into the year ahead.

Cem Karsan, founder of Kai Volatility, shares his expertise on market trends and investment strategies. He discusses the post-election market rally, emphasizing the influence of supply, demand, and structural flows on market dynamics. Karsan explains the significance of 'Vanna and Charm' in risk management and the enticing concept of owning far out-of-the-money options for potential high returns. He also examines the long-term effects of U.S. monetary policy on wealth inequality and navigates the complexities of dispersion trading in the tech sector.

Cem Karsan joins me for a tour of the current volatility and macro environment, where we take a deep dive into where markets and economy are heading. We discuss the potential of the economy going into stagflation and why many investors might not be prepared for what is to come, the unpredictable volatility environment and how technology like AI is affecting markets. We also discuss the potential dangers of zero day options and how to position yourself appropriately for the markets, how to prepare for the upcoming summer holidays and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:45 - The global macro perspective03:07 - Industry performance update04:48 - Reviewing the first half of the year09:14 - A deep dive into markets24:37 - Preparing for a major blowup39:24 - Zero day options - a loaded gun?45:36 - Best Ever 1st half for NASDAQ48:27 - Preparing for summer holidays53:35 - Are CTAs and trend followers are pushing the markets higher?56:43 - Advice when heading into holidays58:33 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer