Hidden Forces

Annie Duke | Making a Sure Bet: Optionality, Decision Making, and How to Embrace Uncertainty

19 snips
Jun 18, 2018
Annie Duke, expert in decision making and uncertainty, discusses how to make smart decisions and embrace uncertainty. She emphasizes the importance of assessing what you know and don't know, and addresses the loose relationship between outcomes and decision quality. Duke explores wicked environments, self-serving bias, illusion of control, and the impact of intelligence on decision making. She also emphasizes the dangers of being complacent and close-minded, and highlights the need to embrace uncertainty in order to make better decisions.
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INSIGHT

Outcome vs. Decision Quality

  • Outcomes don't always reflect decision quality; good decisions can have bad outcomes, and vice versa.
  • Poker teaches this because winning with bad cards/plays or losing with good ones is possible.
ANECDOTE

Red Light Example

  • Annie Duke illustrates the disconnect between outcome and decision quality by mentioning running red lights.
  • Despite never getting a ticket, she acknowledges it's a bad decision, showcasing how outcomes can be misleading.
INSIGHT

Poker vs. Chess in Decision Making

  • Decisions in life resemble poker more than chess; outcomes are loosely correlated in the short term but reveal skill over time.
  • This contrasts with chess, where outcomes directly reflect decision quality due to minimal luck.
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