Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
11 snips
Apr 22, 2020 
Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting, dives into the fascinating world of prediction. He discusses the balance between entertainment and accuracy in forecasting, highlighting the challenges forecasters face to capture attention. Tetlock contrasts fox-like integrative thinkers with hedgehogs and lays out the importance of cognitive diversity in crisis forecasting. He also reflects on the impact of second cultures and offers insights into improving decision-making processes, all while navigating the complexities of human judgment.
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Forecaster Desires
- People want many things from forecasters, not just accuracy.
- These include ideological reassurance, entertainment, and minimizing regret.
Past Pandemic Prediction
- David Epstein predicted a SARS-like pandemic in 2007.
- The risk of zoonotic viruses from exotic meat consumption was known.
Entertainment over Accuracy
- Forecasters may need to be more entertaining than accurate.
- Vividness might be more important than fine-tuning accuracy.
