Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting, dives into the fascinating world of prediction. He discusses the balance between entertainment and accuracy in forecasting, highlighting the challenges forecasters face to capture attention. Tetlock contrasts fox-like integrative thinkers with hedgehogs and lays out the importance of cognitive diversity in crisis forecasting. He also reflects on the impact of second cultures and offers insights into improving decision-making processes, all while navigating the complexities of human judgment.
54:19
forum Ask episode
web_stories AI Snips
view_agenda Chapters
menu_book Books
auto_awesome Transcript
info_circle Episode notes
insights INSIGHT
Forecaster Desires
People want many things from forecasters, not just accuracy.
These include ideological reassurance, entertainment, and minimizing regret.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Past Pandemic Prediction
David Epstein predicted a SARS-like pandemic in 2007.
The risk of zoonotic viruses from exotic meat consumption was known.
insights INSIGHT
Entertainment over Accuracy
Forecasters may need to be more entertaining than accurate.
Vividness might be more important than fine-tuning accuracy.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].
Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension.
He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more.
Conversations with Tyler 
