Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
Conversations with Tyler
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The Complexity of Forecasting in Crisis
This chapter examines the contrasting approaches of foxes and hedgehogs in forecasting, especially during critical events like the coronavirus pandemic. It highlights how cognitive diversity and interdisciplinary methods improve prediction accuracy, while addressing the challenges posed by both human judgment and machine learning. Through discussions on accountability, political dynamics, and the history of intelligence analysis, the chapter sheds light on the intricate interplay between expertise and decision-making in unpredictable environments.
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