Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth How 2 top-tier strategists actually forecast client growth
Sep 11, 2025
Lacie Geary and Brian Sakansky, top-performing growth strategists at Common Thread Collective, dive into the intricacies of precise forecasting for client growth. They discuss the delicate balance between efficiency and volume while utilizing tools like the Spend aMER Model. The duo shares how real-time signals influence media allocation and the impact of historical data on acquisition metrics. They also emphasize effective inventory management, shedding light on the role of data-driven decisions in enhancing brand strategies and achieving profitability.
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Forecasting Is Planning Plus Execution
- Forecasting combines planning and execution; both are inseparable for hitting targets.
- Planning models set expectations and execution makes the forecast real through daily actions.
Set Profit Constraints Before Scaling
- Identify fixed contribution margin needs first so you know how much acquisition you can afford.
- Then push volume up to that profitability constraint to set up future peaks like Q4.
Use Day-Of-Week Targets For Daily Budgets
- Build a day-of-week profile and set daily targets relative to the mean day.
- Reallocate spend to stronger weekday moments and pull back on low-volume weekend days.