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Noise Outweighs Bias in Errors
- Noise in decision-making is much larger than people generally expect, often causing more error than bias.
- Noise includes random inconsistency in judgments within and across individuals, even in routine, expert tasks.
Delay Intuition to Reduce Noise
- To reduce noise, delay intuition until all facts are gathered and analyze different dimensions separately.
- Break decisions into stages and avoid acting without intuitive certainty and full information.
Optimism Drives Economic Progress
- Overconfidence and optimism drive risk-taking and economic progress despite risks.
- Optimism is more valuable than overconfidence and fuels capitalism as an engine of progress.