Can Prediction Markets Reduce Bias and Noise?

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There are mikes on each side. I will call on you, and please, questions only. If you start making a long speech or statement, i will cut you off. We now have some time for questions. Please get in line if you would like to start with the questions here. Our first question is could prediction markets reduce both bias and noise? Well, noise certainly. But then averaging does it? And whether prediction markets consistently beats averaging is not yet fully established.

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You might be surprised by what occupies Daniel Kahneman’s thoughts. “You seem to think that I think of bias all the time,” he tells Tyler. “I really don’t think of bias that much.” These days, noise might be the concept most on Kahneman’s mind. A forthcoming book, coauthored with Cass Sunstein and “a brilliant Frenchman you haven’t heard of” is about how random variability affects our decision-making. And while we’ve spent a lot of time studying how bias causes error in judgment, Kahneman says, we aren’t thinking nearly enough about the problem of noise.

In November, Kahneman joined Tyler for a live conversation about bias, noise and more, including happiness, memory, the replication crisis in psychology, advice to CEOs about improving decision-making, superforecasters, the influence of Freud, working in a second language, the value of intuition, and why he can’t help you win arguments with a spouse.

Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links.

Recorded November 12th, 2018 Other ways to connect

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