Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise
Conversations with Tyler
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How to Pick the Daniel Conman Super Forecasting Team?
Philip tatlock has argued that if we set up long run tournaments with forecasting, and we measure results, it can reduce bias. But is there abaus left? And how tatlocians pick their teams? He picks the teams by results. So with whit he has, he has people competing in making probablistic forecasts. Of strategic or economic events of medium and short term. Some people are more accurate than others. After a year of that, you select the top two %, and you call them super forecasters. That gives them a very good feeling, to be labelled super forecasters - they do not regress to the means.
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