Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Consumer malaise and the outlook for spending

May 22, 2024

Joseph Lupton discusses shifts in consumer confidence and the decoupling of consumer 'malaise' from actual spending in the US, leading to an acceleration in global consumer spending. The podcast also explores the outlook for consumer spending in weak-spots like Western Europe, with insights on macroeconomic fundamentals and global growth.

25:40

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Episode guests

Joseph Lupton

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Consumer sentiment influenced by macroeconomic factors like inflation and income growth.

Differences in consumer sentiment measures indicate varying impacts of stock market performance and unemployment rates.

Deep dives

G4 Consumer Sentiment and Spending Post-Inflation Surge

Consumer sentiment and spending have been impacted by recent economic developments. The G4 consumer confidence piece discusses how factors like the inflation surge in 2022 affected consumers. Despite improvements in macro conditions with declining inflation and strong employment and income growth, the aftermath of the inflation surge has influenced consumer sentiment and spending patterns.

Introduction

4min

Consumer Spending Trends and Sentiment Analysis Across Regions

13min

Consumer Malaise Estimates and Deviation from Fundamental Confidence Levels

2min

Analyzing Consumer Spending Outlook and Confidence Trends in Developed Markets

4min

Contrasting Consumer Confidence and Spending in Emerging Markets and Developed Markets

3min

Joseph Lupton joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss recent shifts in consumer confidence, its fundamental drivers and the outlook for consumer spending. Macroeconomic fundamentals such inflation, income growth, labor markets and stock markets explain a reasonable share of movements in consumer confidence. But the latest consumer sentiment readings for DM economies broadly sit below the levels suggested by macro conditions. A decoupling of this consumer “malaise” from actual consumer behavior in the US drove an acceleration in global consumer spending last quarter. And with the latest PMI surveys indicating that the base for global growth is broadening, we expect consumer spending in a few key regional weak-spots (particularly Western Europe) to follow suit in the months ahead.

This podcast was recorded on May 22, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691534-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Consumer malaise and the outlook for spending

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

G4 Consumer Sentiment and Spending Post-Inflation Surge

Cross-Country Variations in Consumer Confidence

Comparing US and Europe Consumer Sentiment Drivers

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts