Joseph Lupton joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss recent shifts in consumer confidence, its fundamental drivers and the outlook for consumer spending. Macroeconomic fundamentals such inflation, income growth, labor markets and stock markets explain a reasonable share of movements in consumer confidence. But the latest consumer sentiment readings for DM economies broadly sit below the levels suggested by macro conditions. A decoupling of this consumer “malaise” from actual consumer behavior in the US drove an acceleration in global consumer spending last quarter. And with the latest PMI surveys indicating that the base for global growth is broadening, we expect consumer spending in a few key regional weak-spots (particularly Western Europe) to follow suit in the months ahead.
This podcast was recorded on May 22, 2024.
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