Dan Spokojny, a former State Department FSO and founder of FP21, joins Jon Bateman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment, to discuss reforming foreign policy decision-making. They tackle the limitations of current practices, emphasizing the need for evidence-based approaches over narrative-driven decisions. The conversation highlights the disparity in training between military and State Department officials, advocating for structured analysis and innovative forecasting. They also delve into the importance of integrating historical perspectives and utilizing technology in policymaking.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
State Department Internship
Jordan recalls an internship at the State Department where writing skills were prioritized over analytical rigor.
'Juicy' cables were circulated, not those with real substance, revealing a focus on narrative.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Medicine's Evolution
Dan Spokojny draws parallels between foreign policy and medicine's evolution.
He highlights how doctors once practiced bloodletting, demonstrating the importance of evidence-based approaches.
insights INSIGHT
Talent Evaluation
While innate talent is valuable, effective talent evaluation is crucial.
A General Manager needs a system, unlike individual players like Michael Jordan.
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In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].
Wouldn't it be nice to have a world where important policy decisions were decided based on evidence and data rather than narratives and turf battles? Dan Spokojny thought so too, and that's why he's the founder of fp21, a think tank dedicated to changing the processes and institutions of US foreign policy.
Along with Jon Bateman, a senior fellow in the technology and international affairs program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in this episode we talk about some of the failings of contemporary foreign policy decision making processes and what can be done to fix them, including:
How to bring more rigor to making policy decisions
Why the current system loves a good storyteller
What sort of training future foreign policy makers should be getting - but aren't
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