ChinaTalk

Moneyball and US State Department

Aug 22, 2022

Dan Spokojny, a former State Department FSO and founder of FP21, joins Jon Bateman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment, to discuss reforming foreign policy decision-making. They tackle the limitations of current practices, emphasizing the need for evidence-based approaches over narrative-driven decisions. The conversation highlights the disparity in training between military and State Department officials, advocating for structured analysis and innovative forecasting. They also delve into the importance of integrating historical perspectives and utilizing technology in policymaking.

01:39:25

Episode guests

Jon Bateman

Dan Spokojny

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Intro

2min

Enhancing Evidence-Based Foreign Policy

32min

Reforming Foreign Policy Decision-Making

18min

Navigating Evidence-Based Policy Making

20min

Innovating Knowledge Management in Organizations

11min

Innovation and Accountability in Philanthropy

3min

The Value of Historical Perspectives in Policy Making

6min

Perception and Bayesian Thinking

5min

Wouldn't it be nice to have a world where important policy decisions were decided based on evidence and data rather than narratives and turf battles? Dan Spokojny thought so too, and that's why he's the founder of fp21, a think tank dedicated to changing the processes and institutions of US foreign policy.

Along with Jon Bateman, a senior fellow in the technology and international affairs program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in this episode we talk about some of the failings of contemporary foreign policy decision making processes and what can be done to fix them, including:

How to bring more rigor to making policy decisions
Why the current system loves a good storyteller
What sort of training future foreign policy makers should be getting - but aren't

Outro music: Good Bayesian by Baba Brinkman, MC Lars and Mega Ran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV6Wc_f1Cgo&t=195s

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