
The Science of Success
How You Can Predict The Future Better Than World-Famous Experts - The Art & Science of Risk with Dan Gardner
Dec 8, 2016
In this insightful discussion, Dan Gardner, a New York Times best-selling author and senior fellow at the University of Ottawa, reveals how our intuitive sense of risk often misaligns with reality. He explores the surprising ineffectiveness of many experts in predicting outcomes and highlights the extraordinary abilities of 'superforecasters.' Gardner emphasizes the importance of intellectual humility and critical thinking in navigating uncertainties, offering practical strategies to improve decision-making and reduce real-life risks.
48:25
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Quick takeaways
- Intuitive perceptions of risk often mislead individuals, causing them to underestimate actual dangers and make flawed decisions based on emotional reactions.
- Effective decision-making is enhanced by introspection and metacognition, encouraging individuals to reflect on their judgments and acknowledge their fallibility.
Deep dives
The Intuitive Sense of Risk
Intuitive risk perception often misleads individuals regarding actual dangers. For example, after 9/11, many people felt flying was too risky and chose to drive instead, despite statistics showing driving is far more dangerous. This phenomenon reflects how emotional reactions to events can skew our understanding of risk. Misinformed risk judgments can therefore guide people toward greater dangers rather than away from them.
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