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How You Can Predict The Future Better Than World-Famous Experts - The Art & Science of Risk with Dan Gardner

The Science of Success

CHAPTER

Mastering Superforecasting

This chapter explores super forecasting, originating from a unique tournament by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. It highlights the exceptional abilities of a small group of skilled amateurs who outperform professional analysts, attributing their success to qualities like intellectual curiosity and methodical thinking. The discussion emphasizes adopting a growth mindset and probabilistic thinking for effective decision-making and improving forecasting skills.

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