The Gray Area with Sean Illing Toby Ord on existential risk, Donald Trump, and thinking in probabilities
Apr 9, 2020
Toby Ord, an Oxford philosopher known for co-founding the Effective Altruism movement and authoring "The Precipice," discusses humanity's existential risks. He reveals a chilling 1 in 6 chance of extinction by century's end, emphasizing the importance of recognizing threats like nuclear war and climate change. Ord explores ethical implications of valuing future lives and reflects on the political risks during Trump's presidency. This conversation encourages proactive thinking in probabilities and highlights our responsibility to mitigate impending dangers.
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Existential Risk Estimate
- Toby Ord estimates a 1/6 chance of humanity's extinction this century.
- This is based on 15 years of studying existential risks, not a precise calculation.
Natural vs. Anthropogenic Risks
- Natural risks like asteroids are less likely than human-made risks.
- Humanity's power has escalated, outpacing our wisdom to manage it.
Existential Risk Categories
- Existential risks threaten humanity's long-term potential, including extinction.
- Ord categorizes risks, assigning probabilities to each, like 1/1,000,000 for asteroids.
