In 2020, Oxford academic and 80,000 Hours trustee Dr Toby Ord released his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It's about how our long-term future could be better than almost anyone believes, but also how humanity's recklessness is putting that future at grave risk — in Toby's reckoning, a 1 in 6 chance of being extinguished this century.Toby is a famously good explainer of complex issues — a bit of a modern Carl Sagan character — so we thought this would be a perfect introduction to the problem of existential risks.Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interviewThis episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on March 7, 2020. Some related episodes include:• #81 – Ben Garfinkel on scrutinising classic AI risk arguments• #70 – Dr Cassidy Nelson on the twelve best ways to stop the next pandemic (and limit COVID-19)• #43 – Daniel Ellsberg on the creation of nuclear doomsday machines, the institutional insanity that maintains them, & how they could be dismantledSeries produced by Keiran Harris.

Ever wondered where all the aliens are? It’s actually very weird that, as big and old as the universe is, we seem to be the only intelligent life. In this episode, Josh examines the Fermi paradox, and what it says about humanity’s place in the universe. (Original score by Point Lobo.) Interviewees: Anders Sandberg, Oxford University philosopher and co-creator of the Aestivation hypothesis; Seth Shostak, director of SETI; Toby Ord, Oxford University philosopher. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we examine the topic of existential threat, focusing in particular on the subject of nuclear war. Sam opens the discussion by emphasizing the gravity of our ability to destroy life as we know it at any moment, and how shocking it is that nearly all of us perpetually ignore this fact. Philosopher Nick Bostrom expands on this idea by explaining how developing technologies like DNA synthesis could make humanity more vulnerable to malicious actors. Sam and historian Fred Kaplan then guide us through a hypothetical timeline of events following a nuclear first strike, highlighting the flaws in the concept of nuclear deterrence. Former Defense Secretary William J. Perry echoes these concerns, painting a grim picture of his "nuclear nightmare" scenario: a nuclear terrorist attack. Zooming out, Toby Ord outlines each potential extinction-level threat, and why he believes that, between all of them, we face a one in six chance of witnessing the downfall of our species. Our episode ends on a cautiously optimistic note, however, as Yuval Noah Harari shares his thoughts on "global myth-making" and its potential role in helping us navigate through these perilous times.   About the Series Filmmaker Jay Shapiro has produced The Essential Sam Harris, a new series of audio documentaries exploring the major topics that Sam has focused on over the course of his career. Each episode weaves together original analysis, critical perspective, and novel thought experiments with some of the most compelling exchanges from the Making Sense archive. Whether you are new to a particular topic, or think you have your mind made up about it, we think you’ll find this series fascinating.  

Humanity could thrive for millions of years -- unless our future is cut short by an existential catastrophe. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord explains the possible existential risks we face, including climate change, pandemics, and artificial intelligence. Toby and Julia discuss what led him to take existential risk more seriously, which risks he considers underrated vs. overrated, and how to estimate the probability of existential risk.

Toby Ord, moral philosopher at the University of Oxford, discusses the idea of maximising the good that you do. He explains three reasons to be cautious and suggests a more modest goal. He gives examples of harmful outcomes when aiming for a subtly wrong or incomplete goal, such as pursuing a career as a professional swimmer. Toby also explores utilitarianism, the origins and development of effective altruism, and the concept of moral trade.