Rerun: Making Better Predictions - Margaret Heffernan
Jan 5, 2022
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Margaret Heffernan, a prolific writer and captivating speaker, discusses the challenges of predicting the future and the difference between complicated and complex systems. She also explores the challenges faced by product managers and the importance of accuracy and transparency in product forecasting.
Accurately predicting the future is challenging due to incomplete and biased models, as well as unpredictable complex systems.
Managing the balance between efficiency and robustness is crucial when dealing with complex systems influenced by uncontrollable variables.
Deep dives
The unpredictability of the future
Despite having more data and computing power, accurately predicting the future remains challenging due to several factors. Models are inherently incomplete and biased, as they are based on assumptions, values, and past experiences. Additionally, complex systems, which are dynamic and influenced by numerous factors, do not repeat themselves predictably. While models have utility and can provoke discussions, they cannot provide 100% accurate forecasts.
Differentiating complex and complicated data
Complex data refers to systems with numerous factors and unpredictable patterns, while complicated data follows linear cause-and-effect relationships. Complex systems are influenced by uncontrollable variables and can be impacted by small factors. Applying efficiency to complex systems can be dangerous, as it eliminates room for adaptation and response. Understanding the nature of the system and managing the appropriate balance between efficiency and robustness is crucial.
Behavior in the face of uncertainty
When dealing with complex and uncertain situations, it is essential to acknowledge the limitations of forecasting and planning. Emphasizing transparency, openly discussing trade-offs, and setting realistic expectations allows for better decision-making and alignment with stakeholders. It is important to acknowledge that perfection is unattainable, and continuous learning and adaptation should be embraced.
The art of product management
Product managers play a crucial role in navigating uncertainty and managing expectations. They act as cultural translators, bridging different perspectives and aligning interests. By being open, honest, and transparent about uncertainties, trade-offs, and assumptions, product managers can foster better collaboration and ensure that decision-making is grounded in reality.
If the last coupleof years has taught us anything, it’s that predicting the future is hard. In this podcast episode, sponsored by Amplitude, we turn to Margaret Heffernan to learn how to do it better. She’s a captivating speaker with more than 12 million views of her TED talks and a prolific writer who recently published Uncharted: How To Map The Future – if she can’t help, there’s no hope!
Our Hosts Lily Smith enjoys working as a consultant product manager with early-stage and growing startups and as a mentor to other product managers. She’s currently Chief Product Officer at BBC Maestro, and has spent 13 years in the tech industry working with startups in the SaaS and mobile space. She’s worked on a diverse range of products – leading the product teams through discovery, prototyping, testing and delivery. Lily also founded ProductTank Bristol and runs ProductCamp in Bristol and Bath.
Randy Silver is a Leadership & Product Coach and Consultant. He gets teams unstuck, helping you to supercharge your results. Randy's held interim CPO and Leadership roles at scale-ups and SMEs, advised start-ups, and been Head of Product at HSBC and Sainsbury’s. He participated in Silicon Valley Product Group’s Coaching the Coaches forum, and speaks frequently at conferences and events. You can join one of communities he runs for CPOs (CPO Circles), Product Managers (Product In the {A}ether) and Product Coaches. He’s the author of What Do We Do Now? A Product Manager’s Guide to Strategy in the Time of COVID-19. A recovering music journalist and editor, Randy also launched Amazon’s music stores in the US & UK.
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