
The Product Experience
Rerun: Making Better Predictions - Margaret Heffernan
Jan 5, 2022
Margaret Heffernan, a prolific writer and captivating speaker, discusses the challenges of predicting the future and the difference between complicated and complex systems. She also explores the challenges faced by product managers and the importance of accuracy and transparency in product forecasting.
44:35
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Quick takeaways
- Accurately predicting the future is challenging due to incomplete and biased models, as well as unpredictable complex systems.
- Managing the balance between efficiency and robustness is crucial when dealing with complex systems influenced by uncontrollable variables.
Deep dives
The unpredictability of the future
Despite having more data and computing power, accurately predicting the future remains challenging due to several factors. Models are inherently incomplete and biased, as they are based on assumptions, values, and past experiences. Additionally, complex systems, which are dynamic and influenced by numerous factors, do not repeat themselves predictably. While models have utility and can provoke discussions, they cannot provide 100% accurate forecasts.