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State Recessions and the Sahm Rule
- Around 10 states are in recession based on the Sahm Rule, showing rising unemployment.
- The Sahm Rule, while nationally focused, provides insights into individual state economies.
Consumer Spending vs. Unemployment
- Consumer spending data reflects high-income individuals more than lower-income individuals.
- The unemployment rate offers a more balanced view of economic health.
Interpreting the Fed's Hawkish Pause
- The Federal Reserve's "hawkish pause" signals a likely two more rate increases.
- This suggests a 50% or greater chance of needing further rate hikes.