Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

Christopher Mayer: How Do You Know? A Guide to Clear Thinking About Wall Street, Investing, and Life & Dear Fellow Time-Binder: Letters on General Semantics

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Jul 17, 2023
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ADVICE

Use Date, Index, and Etc. Tools

  • Use tools like date subscripts and indexes to avoid assuming things stay the same over time.
  • Add 'etc.' to remind yourself knowledge is incomplete and more information may exist.
INSIGHT

Cause and Effect Complexity

  • Simple cause-and-effect explanations often miss complex, multi-factor realities.
  • Market reactions can defy expectations despite correct macro or earnings calls.
ADVICE

Question What Counts as Fact

  • Raise the threshold for what you call a fact by asking, 'Would you bet your life on it?'.
  • Be skeptical of assumptions masquerading as facts to improve decision making.
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