Russia's recurrent aggression stems from exceeding its capabilities due to a gap between ambitions and capabilities, driven by a sense of providential power and unique mission.
Understanding the interplay between personalities, systems, and power dynamics is crucial in shaping geopolitical outcomes and leadership decisions in Russia.
Deep dives
Russia's Historical Patterns of Behavior and Its Misconceptions of the West
Russia's historical patterns of behavior are characterized by ambitions that exceed its capabilities, leading to recurrent episodes of aggression. The perceived cultural trait of Russian imperialism and the West's challenges are often cited as reasons for this behavior. However, historian Stephen Cotkin argues that Russia's sense of providential power and unique mission, coupled with a gap between its ambitions and capabilities, drives its perpetual struggle to establish a strong state, resulting in personalist rule and strategic miscalculations.
The Influence of Personalities and Systems in Russian Leadership
While personalities like Putin matter, the systemic structures and positions of power play a significant role in shaping Russian leadership. Cotkin highlights how leaders are selected, transformed, and influenced by the systems they operate in. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics between personalities, systems, and the nature of power in determining geopolitical outcomes.
Implications of Misunderstanding Western Power and Unity
Putin's miscalculation of Western strength led to underestimated responses following the invasion of Ukraine. The misconception of a weakened and morally divided West influenced Russia's aggressive actions. However, Cotkin stresses that the West's rediscovered unity and values present a formidable challenge to Russian aggression, highlighting the significance of acknowledging and leveraging Western strength.
Challenges Faced by China Amidst Russo-Ukrainian Conflict
China's alignment with Russia and subsequent loss of European support have revealed strategic miscalculations. The fallout from their stance may impact trade relations and technology access. Cotkin discusses how China's broader geopolitical strategies and dependencies interact with global events, emphasizing the complexities and repercussions of foreign policy decisions.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the world has contended with the stakes of the conflict, and what the war means for Russia’s relationship with the West—and beyond. Should Russia still be considered a great power? What in Russia’s past explains the mistakes it’s making today? Will unity in the West outlast the war? What is Russian President Vladimir Putin's ultimate goal in Ukraine, and is it changing?
Featuring Stephen Kotkin, Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.