Prediction markets as an alternative to model building

Prediction markets offer an alternative approach to model building in science and forecasting. Rather than relying on experts and model construction, prediction markets gather opinions and bets from the general public. While this may initially seem less reliable, prediction markets have proven to be effective in certain situations, particularly those involving social aspects. These markets not only allow individuals to predict future events, but also enable them to bet against each other based on their beliefs. This approach, known as the wisdom of the crowd, has shown promising results in accurately predicting outcomes.