How can we harness the wisdom of the crowd?
Simplifying Complexity
Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd in Prediction Markets
This chapter explores the limitations of traditional models in accurately predicting the future and suggests using prediction markets to leverage the wisdom of the crowd. It discusses the impact of influential figures and policies on forecasting outcomes and proposes hybrid forecasting mechanisms that combine models with market-based or belief aggregation mechanisms to capture rare events more effectively.
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