

[REPLAY] Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
Sep 14, 2020
Gary Klein, a pioneering cognitive psychologist, shares his expertise in naturalistic decision-making and the Pre-Mortem method. Joined by finance professors Paul Johnson and Paul Sonkin, they discuss how anticipating failures can enhance investment strategies. The trio delves into the efficacy of Pre-Mortem analysis, its origins in the Air Force, and its practical applications. They explore cognitive tools like ShadowBox and highlight the importance of psychological safety in team decision-making, emphasizing the value of diverse perspectives in risk assessment.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Pilots vs. Checklists
- Gary Klein's Air Force experience highlighted pilots' reliance on intuition over checklists.
- Pilots admitted to not following procedures, preferring their own tacit knowledge.
Expertise and Tacit Knowledge
- Expertise isn't about memorizing rules, but developing tacit knowledge.
- Checklists help, but real-world situations demand adaptability beyond procedures.
Effective Simulation
- Simulator effectiveness lies in good training scenarios, not realism.
- Focus on challenging scenarios to develop expertise.