Paul Johnson

Gary Klein, a cognitive psychologist and founder of Shadow Box, is joined by finance experts Paul Johnson and Paul Sonkin. They delve into the Pre-Mortem method of risk assessment, highlighting its origins in the Air Force and its significance in avoiding investment failures. The trio discusses enhancing decision-making through tools like Shadow Box training and Cognitive After-Action Reviews. They critique common risk mitigation techniques and emphasize the necessity of fostering a candid dialogue in teams to improve outcomes and reduce overconfidence.

Gary Klein, a pioneering cognitive psychologist, shares his expertise in naturalistic decision-making and the Pre-Mortem method. Joined by finance professors Paul Johnson and Paul Sonkin, they discuss how anticipating failures can enhance investment strategies. The trio delves into the efficacy of Pre-Mortem analysis, its origins in the Air Force, and its practical applications. They explore cognitive tools like ShadowBox and highlight the importance of psychological safety in team decision-making, emphasizing the value of diverse perspectives in risk assessment.

In this engaging conversation, Paul Johnson, a seasoned investor and professor, joins fellow financial expert Paul Sonkin, a portfolio manager and analyst, to discuss their groundbreaking book. They delve into the art of pitching investment ideas and the pivotal role of creativity in finance. The duo highlights the importance of understanding intrinsic value, competitive advantages, and effective communication between analysts and portfolio managers. Their insights into market dynamics and the wisdom of crowds offer valuable lessons for both novice and seasoned investors.