The Decision-Making Studio Podcast

Ep. 234: Dr. Gary Klein - On Lessons in Naturalistic Decision-Making

Nov 16, 2024

In a fascinating discussion, Gary Klein, a pioneer in naturalistic decision-making known for his innovative PreMortem technique, delves into the complexities of high-pressure decision processes. He emphasizes the crucial role of intuition over exhaustive analysis, sharing insights from fields like firefighting and policing. Klein also highlights the difference between true expertise and mere experience, advocating for scenario-based training. His unique perspective on cognitive biases and the importance of curiosity offers a refreshing take on enhancing decision-making quality.

01:10:41

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Episode guests

Gary Klein

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Quick takeaways

The Premortem technique effectively shifts team focus from uncritical enthusiasm to identifying potential failures, enhancing project planning through open dialogue.

Naturalistic decision-making highlights the importance of real-world experience in high-pressure environments, emphasizing intuitive assessments over traditional analytical methods.

Expertise should be viewed as a process of reflection and adaptation, revealing critical insights that improve decision-making beyond mere accumulated experience.

Deep dives

The Premortem Technique and Its Misapplication

The premortem technique is designed to help teams anticipate potential failures before they occur, shifting the focus from celebratory enthusiasm to realistic critiques. A common error in applying this technique is framing the question as whether anyone sees problems in the plan, which may discourage honest feedback due to team pressures. Instead, it should be positioned around the assumption that the project has failed, prompting team members to outline potential reasons for that failure. This reframing encourages open dialogue, allowing all team members to present their insights without fear of criticism, ultimately leading to a more robust project plan.

Intro

4min

The Evolution of Naturalistic Decision-Making: From Military Needs to Global Movement

5min

Understanding Expertise in Decision-Making

20min

Unpacking the Premortem Technique

17min

Exploring Insights Through Curiosity and Observation

3min

Pathways to Insights: From Connections to Anomalies

4min

The Power of Intuition in Decision-Making

14min

Practical Masterclass on Decision-Making

3min

Today, I bring you my conversation with an absolute legend, Gary Klein. Gary is a renowned pioneer in naturalistic decision-making. He has extensively researched how experienced professionals (e.g. experienced physicians, firefighters, police officers, etc.) make decisions in high-pressure environments, relying on their intuition without extensive analysis. This led Gary to develop the “Recognition Primed Decision Model”. And if you've ever come across the PreMortem technique, Gary invented that. The PreMortem is something that helps decision-makers anticipate failures before they occur.

He's also collaborated with Nobel laureate, the late Daniel Kahneman, but did so as “collaborative adversaries” as he has a different take on cognitive biases. And you will hear more about that directly from Gary. Gary's work also inspired Malcolm Gladwell's book, Blink, and so much more. He is an absolute legend. In this conversation, we talk about the role of intuition and decision-making in reducing errors and enhancing insights, which Gary has done extensive work on. Gary shares some great context and advice on the PreMortem and so much more. I think Gary's work is essential to understanding and practising quality decision-making.

Show notes:

Gary’s website

Naturalistic Decision-Making - www.naturalisticdecisionmaking.org

Gary’s firm, ShadowBox LLC: https://www.shadowboxtraining.com/

Gary’s “Masterclass in Practical Decision-Making”

QR code to the masterclass:

Gary’s latest book, Snapshots of the Mind

Recognition-primed Decision Model

PreMortem method

Gary’s article with Daniel Kahneman, “A Failure to Disagree”

Gary’s book Seeing What Others Don’t – The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights

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