Today, I welcome Roger Spitz back to the show. Roger is a futurist, author, and president of Techistential, which is a strategy consultancy. He's also the chair of The Disruptive Futures Institute, which is a global education hub. For the purposes of this episode, however, he is the author of a new book, Disrupt with Impact - Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World, which is all about helping to guide us through uncertainty and unpredictability. Roger was in London at the end of last year and we met up and recorded this fabulous episode in an external studio. We covered lots of ground with this chat, including what Roger means by “disruption 3.0”, uncertainty, AI, some of the shortcomings of our education system, and what leaders can and should be doing to disrupt with impact.  Show Notes: Disrupt with Impact - https://www.thrivingondisruption.com/disrupt-with-impact Roger on LinkedIn - Roger Spitz Techistential – www.techistential.ai  Roger on the podcast on episode 198 - https://open.spotify.com/episode/0LTP4xkhxwpjwpUEDeE7Xe?si=LhgixrbnRXGB9OXSccLK4Q Joseph Schumpeter - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter Clayton Christensen - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clayton_Christensen Dr. Peter Bishop - https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-bishop-2866257/ Teach the Future - https://www.teachthefuture.org/  _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/ All our podcast episodes are here: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast  Our latest newsletter: https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=f19fc74942b40b513cf66af32&id=1e2a6c0ea9   

This “inbetweenisode” is based on the latest edition of our newsletter. It’s all about uncertainty. After two and a half decades of working with decision-making under uncertainty, I have come to the following conclusion: uncertainty is about emotion. Show notes: Our latest newsletter: https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=f19fc74942b40b513cf66af32&id=1e2a6c0ea9 Scenario planning guide: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ben-cattaneo_scenario-planning-taster-guide-activity-7200947403045175296-EXlT?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop _ _ _ _ _ Like what you heard? Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/ Subscribe to our podcast: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

In this insightful discussion, Daniel Wagner, CEO of Country Risk Solutions and co-author of Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era, shares his expertise on the evolving geopolitical landscape as 2025 approaches. He analyzes the potential impact of a second Trump term on foreign policy and NATO, while shedding light on the challenges posed by U.S.-China relations. Wagner also addresses the fragility of multilateralism in climate policy and the unpredictability of global flashpoints, urging listeners to engage with these pressing issues.

Today, we're going to hear about something called “the housefly effect”, which is all about how little interventions affect our behaviour and how we don't even realize that. My guests are the co-authors of a fascinating book by the same name, The Housefly Effect – How Nudge Psychology Steers Your Everyday Behaviour. They are Dr. Eva van den Broek, and Tim den Heijer, both are based in the Netherlands. Eva holds a PhD in behavioural economics and is the founder of Behavioral Insights. She works with a lot of policymakers on these topics. Tim is a creative strategist, the founder of B.R.A.I.N. Creatives and has over 20 years of experience in advertising for some of the biggest brands in the world. And they make a great team, as you will hear. This conversation is a fun one, but it makes you think. And, as you listen to it, it's interesting to consider the choices that we make and whether or not there's something at play in these decisions that's almost imperceptible - the housefly effect. Small things can have big impacts. And if we understand that, it opens many fascinating possibilities. Show Notes: The Housefly Effect – https://www.amazon.co.uk/Housefly-Effect-Psychology-Everyday-Behaviour/dp/183501142X Eva on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/evdbroek/ Tim on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/timdenheijer/ Eva’s firm Stichting Behavioural Insights - https://www.behaviouralinsights.nl/ Tim’s firm B.R.A.I.N. Creatives - https://braincreatives.nl/wie Morioka Shoten – the Tokyo bookshop that only sells one book: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/dec/23/japanese-bookshop-stocks-only-one-book-at-a-time Robert Cialdini - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Cialdini Gerd Gigerenzer – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer Koen Smets – https://behavioralscientist.org/author/koen-smets/ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Like what you heard? Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/ Subscribe to our podcast: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast    

Today, we talk about one of the most influential people in world history - how he thought and how he made decisions. That person is Charles Darwin, the man who caused the Western World to reassess what it thought  was true. Charles Darwin had a way of thinking and deciding and hear all about that in this episode. We obviously could not get Charles himself. However, we have fabulous conversation with his great-great grandson, Chris Darwin. Chris has  very interesting background. Earlier his early life he had enough of hearing about his famous ancestor and he pursued a career in advertising.  As you will hear however, he came back to Charles and how he thought and how he made decisions. Chris is based in Australia. He is an author, adventurer, and conservationist.  He joins me in a stimulating, fun and insightful discussion into how Charles Darwin thought and made decisions. Show notes: The Darwin Challenge Chris on finding one’s purpose Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg Atomic Habits by James Clear _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Like what you heard? Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/ Subscribe to our podcast: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast      

Today, we talk about the arc of international business in Russia over the past 30-some years. Our guest is Charles Hecker. Charles is a self-professed “Russia geek” who has written a fabulous new book entitled Zero Sum - The Arc of International Business in Russia. It largely covers the time starting from the fall of the Soviet Union to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's utterly fascinating on so many levels.  International business in Russia, as you will hear, is almost like a huge natural experiment in decision-making. You will hear about complex to nuanced decisions, bad decisions, good decisions, and downright batshit crazy decisions. To fully understand and appreciate a topic as complex as Russia, you need to live and breathe it, and Charles has and does. He studied in Russia during the Cold War. He was a journalist there with Moscow Times in the 1990s and also led Control Risks Russia office in the country. Control Risks is a specialist risk consultancy where Charles and I were colleagues. Charles is also a great storyteller. That will come through in this conversation and it also comes through in the book which is filled with colour. In reading it, one can almost see, and smell vodka dripping from the page and imagine oneself in Russia in the nineties and the noughties. While it's impossible to go back in time and fully understand what people were thinking and feeling when they made decisions when it comes to business decision-making in Russia, Charles's account comes about as close as you can get. Show notes: Charles’ website - https://www.charleshecker.com/ Zero Sum - The Arc of International Business in Russia Charles on LinkedIn The loans for shares scheme The BRICS Mikhail Khodorkovsky Yukos The Kursk submarine disaster TNK-BP The Beslan school siege The Moscow theatre siege Putin’s 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Like what you heard? Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/ Subscribe to our podcast: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast Sign up for our “Decision Navigators” course: https://lnkd.in/eMZSPft4

In a fascinating discussion, Gary Klein, a pioneer in naturalistic decision-making known for his innovative PreMortem technique, delves into the complexities of high-pressure decision processes. He emphasizes the crucial role of intuition over exhaustive analysis, sharing insights from fields like firefighting and policing. Klein also highlights the difference between true expertise and mere experience, advocating for scenario-based training. His unique perspective on cognitive biases and the importance of curiosity offers a refreshing take on enhancing decision-making quality.

This episode is a bit different. It’s a “Decision Clinic” in which Dr. Melina Moleskis and I offer some views on three “decision dilemmas” submitted to us by wonderful listeners. The format is a bit like an “ask me anything” podcast. Enjoy! Show notes: Sign up for our Decision Navigators course: https://tdo04pxyq8y.typeform.com/to/Bgn3Qd5K FOCUS framework Weight and rate tool Hot and cold empathy gap Base rates Premortem Inversion Trip wires Susan David _ _ _ _ _ _   Like what you heard? Subscribe to The Decision-Making Studio Podcast

Dr. Dan Dworkis, an emergency physician and founder of The Emergency Mind Project, brings a wealth of knowledge on decision-making under pressure. He discusses how to improve performance in crises, emphasizing teamwork and adaptability. Listeners learn about the significance of humility and active learning, as well as recovery processes post-trauma. Dworkis also explores strategies for navigating high-pressure scenarios across various fields. Dive into insights on learning from past experiences and the importance of mental preparedness!

Joel Pearson, a professor at the University of New South Wales and director of the Future Minds Lab, dives into the intriguing science of intuition. He unravels intuition as a learned skill rather than a magical instinct and discusses when to rely on or ignore gut feelings. Pearson introduces 'mis-intuition,' illustrating situations when our instincts mislead us. He shares insights on emotional influences in decision-making, the perception of free will, and practical strategies for enhancing intuitive thinking, especially in high-stakes contexts.