Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Introduction
00:00 • 3min
How Can You Quantify Your Confidence?
02:34 • 2min
The Use Cases of Prediction Markets
04:48 • 4min
How to Make a Better Forecast
09:13 • 3min
How Much Equity Should I Take or Cash Salary?
11:50 • 2min
How to Write a Probability to Your Predictions
13:49 • 3min
How to Calculate the Expected Value of a Probability
16:21 • 2min
How Much Equity Should I Take?
18:29 • 3min
How to Predict the Market No Now
21:11 • 4min
Forecasting and Asking Good Questions
24:45 • 2min
Is There a Specific Resolution Criteria?
26:15 • 2min
Prediction Markets - Some of the Weaknesses
28:13 • 4min
Is There a Risk of Outcomes Becoming Wrong?
31:51 • 3min
Prediction Markets
35:06 • 4min
Prediction Markets - The Skin in the Game Feeling the Downside
39:23 • 3min
Manifold Markets - Is the Homepage Customizable?
42:09 • 2min
The Difference Between Metaculous and Manifold
44:38 • 2min