2min chapter

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Empowering yourself with forecasting | David Chee | EAGxVirtual 2022

EA Talks

CHAPTER

How to Calculate the Expected Value of a Probability

It is important to sort of assign a confidence level to each probability and on manifold or prediction markets themselves that will normally be reflected in how much, how much money you invest or slash trade. If you're like journaling or sort of just writing this down then it's probably helpful to actually give a number so like I'm 90% come this will happenor just like maybe come up with some tier system that works for you. And then yeah write it down. You can be, you can be super smart, but you got to write it downlike yeah just remembering in your head it's not helpful for these kinds of things.

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