Drunk Agile

Episode 2 - Probabilistic Thinking

Jan 18, 2021
Ask episode
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1
Introduction
00:00 • 3min
2
The Importance of Deterministic Thinking
02:49 • 2min
3
The Probability of Wining the World Cup
04:38 • 2min
4
The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking
06:44 • 2min
5
The Problem With Deterministic Forecasts
09:05 • 3min
6
The Floor of Averages
11:38 • 2min
7
How to Communicate a Forecast With Probability
13:50 • 3min
8
How to Think Probabilistically
16:48 • 3min
9
Trump Wins Every Fourth Election
19:43 • 3min
10
The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking
23:02 • 2min
11
The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking in Casinos
25:15 • 2min
12
The Good News Is We Can Still Be Predictable
27:18 • 2min
13
The Power of Control
29:08 • 2min
14
The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking
30:40 • 2min
15
The Importance of Past Behavior in Forecasting
33:03 • 2min
16
Drunk Agile: The Problem With Quarantine and Lockdown
34:56 • 2min